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U.N. Fudges the Data on West Bank Violence - WSJ

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  • Data Scrutiny: A report by Regavim challenges U.N. OCHA data on West Bank violence, alleging it includes non-violent incidents in its count of violent settler events.

  • Incident Inclusion: The U.N. data reportedly includes activities such as visits to the Temple Mount, archaeological site visits, and even traffic accidents as 'settler violence'.

  • Questionable Victims: The U.N. count of alleged violent incidents includes Palestinians harmed while engaging in terrorist attacks and cases where the victim's involvement in clashes is noted.

  • Blame on Security Forces: In some instances counted as 'settler violence' by the U.N., the report indicates that Israeli security forces, not settlers, were responsible.

  • Contrast with Palestinian Attacks: Israeli data from Shin Bet records a significantly higher number of serious attacks by Palestinians against Israeli civilians compared to the filtered 'settler violence' incidents.


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bogorad
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Los Angeles riots may encourage illegal immigrants to self-deport - Washington Examiner

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  • Presidential Approval: President Trump's job approval rating has recovered and is near 50%, comparable to Obama and G.W. Bush at a similar point in their second terms.

  • Military Recruitment: Under the new Defense Secretary, the Army met its FY2025 recruiting goal early, which the author suggests may be linked to Trump's rhetoric attracting un-woke young people.

  • Trade with China: China's exports to the U.S. in May were the lowest since February 2020, possibly influenced by Trump's trade policies and rhetoric.

  • Labor Market: May job numbers increased by more than expected, despite a significant drop in foreign-born workers since March.

  • Self-Deportation: The events in Los Angeles, including the handling of protests against ICE activity and the federal response, may encourage illegal immigrants to consider "self-deportation."

  • Public Opinion on Immigration: Polls indicate public approval of Trump's deportation program and show that many voters feel Democrats lack a clear plan on immigration.


“How’m I doin’?” the late New York Mayor Ed Koch used to ask constituents on his travels through the city. President Donald Trump, in the opinion of most Americans, is doin’ pretty well.
His job approval, which jutted downward after he announced his “liberation day” tariffs on April 2, has recovered and hovers just below 50%. That’s just about the level of Barack Obama’s and George W. Bush’s approval at this point in their second terms and above his own approval at any point in his first term.
Many continue to regard some top appointments as eccentric. His style of discourse, OFTEN IN ALL CAPS, is eccentric by any past presidential standard. But in a political system that remains democratic and is increasingly demotic, that which sounds coarse to you (and me) is apparently acceptable to most people. 
As for his, um, unusual appointments, they may make sense for a president who is less interested in fine-tuning organizations than in affecting the behaviors of mass publics. 
Candidate Donald Trump in 2024 promised that he would eliminate shortfalls in military recruitment, which he attributed to the Biden Pentagon’s “woke” policies. He pointed out accurately that the Army and Navy fell short of recruitment goals by as much as 25% in fiscal years 2022 and 2023
As defense secretary, he named Fox News host and military veteran Pete Hegseth, saying he’d promote a warfighting ethos that would attract un-woke young men and women to join up. The Army raised its recruiting goal from 55,000 to 61,000 and reached it in May, four months early
Maybe that’s a coincidence or a response to other factors. But it looks like Trump’s rhetoric made a big difference.
Or look at trade. Trump has made no secret of his love for tariffs and his desire to reduce trade with China. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s exports to the U.S. in May were the lowest since Covid-wracked February 2020. It looks like thousands of American and Chinese market participants have made new decisions in response to Trump’s rhetoric. 
Meanwhile, the May job numbers in the U.S. increased by a more-than-expected 139,000, despite a 60,000 reduction in federal jobs since January. And despite a drop of foreign-born workers in the labor market estimated between 773,000 and 1,000,000 since March. 
Three-quarters of a million to a million — those numbers dwarf the number of annual deportations from the interior of the U.S. as compiled by my Washington Examiner colleague Conn Carroll
Those range from 65,000 in the last year of the Obama administration and from 28,000 to 47,000 in the four Biden years. They were higher, 81,000 to 95,000, in the first three years of Trump I and then fell to 62,000 in Covid year 2020. 
These numbers put in perspective the drama that has been playing out in Los Angeles this past week. The Trump administration cannot expect that it can, logistically, remove all the untold millions of illegal immigrants that whoever was running the Biden administration (no one, including the authors of Original Sin, has disclosed just who that was) allowed into the U.S. But splashy raids and deportations can get hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of illegal immigrants thinking about what Mitt Romney in 2012 called “self-deportation.”
Which is probably happening thanks to what has been happening in Los Angeles these past five days. Demonstrations against ICE deportation activity resulted in the arrest of the head of the SEIU, the big government employees’ union. When “sanctuary city” Mayor Karen Bass and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) let the rioting go on, Trump nationalized the California National Guard and dispatched Marines. 
He plainly had the authority to do so when federal law enforcement is blocked, and as my Washington Examiner colleague Byron York recounts. And the Supreme Court in 2012 made it clear that federal immigration law prevails over countervailing state law. 
There’s no question whose side the public is on. A pre-riot CBS poll showed 54% approving of Trump’s deportation program, and two polls taken this week showed approval, Insider Advantage by 59% to 39%, and the Napolitan News poll by 58% to 36%
After eight years of stark contrast between Trump and Democrats’ policies, as CNN poll analyst Harry Enten points out, most voters give Trump high marks and “believe that Democrats don’t have a clue on the issue of immigration.” 
Similarly, voters who remember Democrats’ insistence and journalists’ assurances that Joe Biden was fully functional are skeptical that the L.A. rioters were “overwhelmingly peaceful” (Kamala Harris) or “largely peaceful” (the New York Times).
There’s ample historic precedent for Trump’s action as well. President Eisenhower in 1957 and President Johnson in 1965 sent in federal troops to uphold federal law over the opposition of Democratic governors in Arkansas and Alabama.
Those governors were defying federal law for a cause, preservation of racial segregation, that the vast majority of voters, after a decade of reflection, were determined to reject. Today’s California Democrats are defying federal law for a cause, permanent amnesty for illegal immigrants, which it appears that voters, after a decade of reflection, are bent on rejecting as well. 
As for the illegal immigrants themselves, I’m not aware that anyone has conducted a poll of them, or could, since people in their situation are wary of being interviewed. But as the workforce numbers suggest, for many, self-deportation, together perhaps with the Department of Homeland Security’s $1,000 travel stipend, is looking like a good option. One that may be taken up by many more than are legally deported.  
So “how’s he doin”? Better, perhaps, than his critics think.

Who do you believe is most responsible for the ongoing violence in Los Angeles?

Poll ends in 5 days • Vote below
  • The individuals committing violent acts.
  • State officials like Newsom who oppose federal intervention.
  • The federal government and their enforcement strategies.
  • Activists and their influence on the situation.
2120 votes
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bogorad
11 hours ago
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A Cautionary Tale for America — From France | The New York Sun

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  • French defense spending: France faces challenges in increasing its defense budget to 3.5% of GDP due to high national debt.

  • Debt exceeding economy: France's national debt surpasses its economic output, limiting its ability to borrow more for defense.

  • Fiscal constraints: High budget deficits and taxes, coupled with reluctance to cut welfare spending, make it difficult for France to fund defense goals.

  • Debt servicing costs: France spends more on servicing its national debt annually than its defense budget.

  • Comparison with Germany: Germany is pursuing military rearmament funded by borrowing, unlike France, which is limited by its debt.

  • US parallels: The US also faces high national debt and interest payments exceeding its defense budget, presenting similar potential constraints.


For those who see no downside in America’s failure to control its runaway federal borrowing, a harbinger of debt danger is emerging at, of all places, Paris. That’s where the French government is finding that it is unable to boost its defense spending because it has already borrowed too much money. So while America’s other allies in the North Atlantic Treaty are spending more to improve their militaries, France is lagging. It’s a cautionary tale for America.

President Macron aspires to raise French defense spending to as much as 3.5 percent of national economic output from its current level of roughly 2 percent, the Financial Times reports, “implying a doubling of yearly spending” to some 100 billion euros by 2030. Yet the French fiscal well is dry. Paris has already racked up so much debt — more than 3.3 trillion euros — that its borrowing now exceeds the size of its economy of a little more than 3 trillion euros. 

The French budget deficit is already one of the largest in Europe, running at almost 6 percent of economic output. Taxes are among the highest on the Continent. Spending cuts on welfare entitlements, one imagines, are insupportable. So “lawmakers and analysts are questioning whether France can deliver” on its spending goals, the FT reports, as the “high national debt threatens to curb its defence ambitions.”

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So much for Monsieur Macron’s “priority to rebuild the military after decades of cuts after the Cold War,” the FT says. By contrast, at Berlin, lawmakers wary of Russian aggression have unveiled a vast military rearmament scheme to the tune of some $1 trillion in new spending — largely funded by new borrowing. Germany, though, can apparently afford the splurge. It recently surpassed Japan as the world’s largest creditor nation.

One option for France is to beg the European Union for an exemption from the superstate’s deficit caps, allowing it to borrow to cover more military spending. Yet national amour-propre — and excessive indebtedness — apparently bars this course. “France has no intention” of asking for a temporary suspension of the EU deficit limit, the FT reports, “since it fears spooking bond investors and adding to already high interest costs.” 

Already, France is spending 59 billion euros a year to service its national debt, an amount that exceeds its annual defense budget. Yet Uncle Sam can hardly castigate the spendthrift French. America’s own debt held by the public already stands at some 97 percent of the gross domestic product. Interest on the debt here, too, exceeds the annual defense budget. The budget bill brewing in Congress is slated to add trillions of dollars to the national debt. 

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Fiscal hawks have already been sounding the alarm over how the surging national debt could constrain America’s freedom of action. The head of the Congressional Budget Office, Phillip Swagel, has warned that the “unprecedented” level of federal debt could induce a “Liz Truss-style market shock.” That means a debt market meltdown like the one that prevented Prime Minister Truss from advancing a pro-growth supply-side tax cut in Britain.

Mr. Swagel’s caution was “a reminder of the perils of profligacy,” these columns cautioned last year. Since then, the fiscal picture has hardly brightened. The solons on Capitol Hill, rather than tackling the scourge of federal overspending, appear content to let budget deficits persist indefinitely. Yet as France’s thwarted defense buildup shows, there are risks to this recklessness. Debt, in the end, can destroy national independence just as badly as defeat in a war.

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bogorad
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Cenk Uygur on X: "I think ICE provoked this whole thing in LA by firing into the crowd immediately. But the radicals on our side are so stupid. Why do you need to burn Waymos and American flags? What does that prove, other than what Trump wants to prove, that you are against America, violent and" / X

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  • Initial conflict: The author attributes the provocation of the situation in LA to ICE.

  • Critique of radical actions: The author criticizes the burning of Waymos and American flags as counterproductive and benefiting opposing viewpoints.

  • Impact on community and immigrants: The author questions how destructive actions help immigrants or the community, citing property damage experienced by an employee.

  • Counterproductive actions: The author argues that the actions of some protestors harm their own cause rather than ICE or Trump.

  • Winning support: The author emphasizes the importance of peaceful protest to win public support, echoing the strategy of winning hearts and minds.


I think ICE provoked this whole thing in LA by firing into the crowd immediately. But the radicals on our side are so stupid. Why do you need to burn Waymos and American flags? What does that prove, other than what Trump wants to prove, that you are against America, violent and dangerous? Maybe that helps you with your emotional release and helps build your "brand" if you're an influencer. But how does it help the community or immigrants? It's deeply counterproductive and led by a bunch of selfish pricks who are just trying to help themselves. TYT broadcasts out of LA. One of our employee's house was slightly damaged. And that helped immigrants how? I'm an immigrant, how did that property damage help me? How did it help the community? The people being counterproductive are not hurting ICE or Trump, they're hurting their own side. Do you think more people in LA are on your side now than before? Maybe, because Trump also loves to be counterproductive and brought in the military way too fast (or at all). But definitely not because of the damage so-called protestors are doing. They have needlessly cost us support, even at home in LA. This is still a small percentage of protestors, most of whom are legitimately and peacefully protesting. Yes, like the majority of people who went to Trump's speech on January 6th but didn't attack the Capitol. Rule #1 of protesting: Win the crowd - at home. Win hearts and minds. Win the American people over. That's what serious people who want to win and protect our communities do. Children break things and scream, "Look at me, daddy!!"
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bogorad
13 hours ago
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"It was chaos" — The LA Riots, a First Hand Account

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  • Timeline and Escalation: Protests in downtown LA escalated to violence after police tried to leave an area near the federal building, leading to protesters damaging police cars and, subsequently, burning five Waymo vehicles.

  • Burning of Waymos: Unoccupied Waymo self-driving cars were vandalized and set on fire after protesters moved through areas with no police presence. There was a divide between some protesters who wanted to light the fires and others who tried to prevent it due to safety concerns.

  • Police Presence and Response: The police role varied significantly. On Sunday, there was very little LAPD presence after the initial confrontation, with California Highway Patrol officers trapped under an overpass. On Monday, focused arrests were made during a day the protesters aimed for "peaceful optics."

  • Politics and Opinions: The interviewee identifies as right-leaning, disagreeing with the characterization of ICE raids as immoral acts of terrorism and criticizing local leadership (Karen Bass) for not taking stronger action against the rioters.

  • Anarchy and Damage: Sunday's events in downtown LA were described as


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bogorad
14 hours ago
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Everything Comes Back to the Lies From 5 Years Ago

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We're still grappling with the aftermath of journalism's profound failure during Covid and the George Floyd protests. The lies reporters told five years ago continue to haunt them - and all of us.
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bogorad
14 hours ago
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