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Sensible Tories need to start preparing for a coalition

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Conservative Delusion: party officials maintain a false narrative of revival despite catastrophic electoral losses across local councils in england, wales, and scotland.
  • Failed Milestones: the retention of a few affluent seats is being absurdly presented as a successful recovery following a performance that leaves the party in a weak position.
  • Reform Expansion: with 1,500 council seats secured, the reform party is demonstrating clear momentum toward national governance rather than acting as a mere nuisance.
  • Opposition Incompetence: although the government is suffering from severe mid-term crises, the conservatives fail to capitalize on the public mood due to their own stagnant and uninspiring standing.
  • Fatal Complacency: the belief that reform will inevitably collapse due to self-inflicted incompetence is a high-risk strategy that fails to account for structural shifts in voting bases.
  • Coalition Necessity: survival for the conservative party rests on the desperate hope of forging informal, localized electoral pacts with farage to prevent complete political obsolescence.
  • Ideological Tailoring: specific politicians are being identified as viable lures for reform, focusing on either those with right-wing pedigrees or those occupying safe, cosmopolitan strongholds where reform remains weak.
  • Imminent Collapse: the current seventeen percent polling floor is illusory and vulnerable to further erosion if voters abandon the party to prevent a left-wing electoral victory.

James Frayne James Frayne

James Frayne is a political strategist and a specialist in political opinion research. See more He has held senior roles in government, campaigns and in the corporate world. He founded the research agency Public First in 2016 and was previously director of communications at the Department for Education and director of strategy at the Policy Exchange think tank. 

Published 10 May 2026 8:00am BST

This bizarre narrative persists in Tory world: “Kemi Badenoch is leading a revival of the party”. This inexplicably developed when the party’s national opinion poll ratings remained sub-20 points. It persists even after these elections, where they lost more than 500 council seats in England, saw their Welsh Senedd seats drop by 22 to 7, and their Scottish Parliament seats drop by 19 to 12.

Tories push this message after losing control of councils in their heartlands of Essex and Suffolk, amongst half a dozen council losses. They push it even as they failed to re-take Wandsworth. All on the basis of what? The fact they regained control of their flagship Westminster council and held middle-class councils in the prosperous South? This is a strange measure of success.

Reform, meanwhile, secured nearly 1,500 council seats across England – many of them at the direct expense of the Conservative Party. Reform’s performance wasn’t that of an irritating challenger party like Ukip used to be, but of a party heading for Downing Street.

We’re nearly two years into this Parliament and the Labour Party is suffering from something the phrase “mid-term blues” doesn’t vaguely do justice to. They suffered huge losses across the country and many Labour activists are calling for the Prime Minister’s resignation.

This ought to be the Tories’ moment. In this climate, an opposition party with serious ambition should be taking vast numbers of local election seats off a flailing Government. But the Conservatives’ performance suggested mid-term blues too. If this isn’t enough to put the party into deep contemplation about their future, it’s hard to know what will.

There remains this assumption that Reform will blow themselves up in the end through a mixture of extremism and incompetence. At that point, the belief goes, voters will come flocking back to the Tories. Such moments of incompetence and extremism from Reform are guaranteed, but it stretches credibility to imagine these will be enough to wipe the party out and transfer all its voters to the Tories.

While it was reasonable but wrong for Conservative politicians and strategists to remain blasé about Reform’s opinion poll ratings, it’s completely baffling how they remain equally relaxed about Reform’s actual election results. These confirmed what national opinion polls have shown, with Reform’s national vote share around 25 per cent and the Tories’ around 17 per cent. But they showed what such national leads can mean on the ground: with Reform devastating the Tories right across the country.

Farage
Not even a few moments of incompetence by Reform will send its voters back to the Tories Credit: Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images

What should the Conservatives do?

The party’s only hope is that vulnerable MPs and ambitious candidates take into their own hands the formation of a coalition with Reform – on the basis that Farage will surely realise a Reform majority is unlikely and a national government with willing Tories is the best bet to take power.

I have previously written about this in these pages, but the contours of such an arrangement have become clearer after these results, particularly in England. The formation of such a coalition must happen quietly and informally; Farage can never publicly agree a deal as his activists hate the Tories so much. Tory politicians and candidates must do their own deals.

Only two types of Tories will be interesting to Reform.

The first are Reform-minded politicians with the right ideological heritage and experience of government or Parliament. Nick Timothy naturally springs to mind – the former Home Office adviser who was briefly Theresa May’s chief of staff at No. 10, and the party’s star performer of the last year. Timothy would drastically strengthen a national government Cabinet, led by Reform.

Another is Katie Lam, also a former Home Office and Downing Street adviser, who has been another top performer in the last year. Yet another, cut from entirely different cloth but with deep experience in Parliament, is Bernard Jenkin. Of course, there are others.

Katie Lam
MP Katie Lam is the type of Conservative that would be interesting to Reform in the event of a coalition Credit: Anthony Devlin/Bloomberg

These politicians represent seats in Suffolk, Kent and Essex respectively, and are surely vulnerable in a Reform surge. Suffolk and Essex went Reform at these local elections, of course. But each of them could do business with Reform and each of them would be critical in a Reform-Tory coalition.

The second type of Tories are those who stand in places where Reform are weak. While Reform can get votes anywhere, there are still places they struggle. As these local elections confirmed, above all, that includes richer, cosmopolitan inner-London, its prosperous outer boroughs, and the constellation of towns that form London’s broad commuter belt.

The Tories are strong in some of these places: they did, after all, hold Westminster council, as well as Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon and Harrow. But there are other places where the Tories are strong only in relative terms, because Reform are weak. Most obviously, this includes wealthy Surrey, which the Lib Dems secured in large part at these local elections.

In short, Reform is weak in this Remainer-Land: places stuffed full of middle-class professionals (often younger) from the public and private sectors, who tend to be more positive towards immigration and a more “modern” take on the culture wars.

Reform is never going to be competitive here. If Tory candidates can persuade Reform that they share the same overall aims – and a desire to keep out the Left – then Farage might do a series of deals. Many Tories, perhaps the majority, will prefer to sit and wait and see what happens in the next year before embarking on any such high-stakes outreach to Reform. This of course makes some sort of sense.

But too many Tories think their party’s floor in the national opinion polls is still enough to form the basis of a real fightback. They think that being on, say, 17 per cent in the polls isn’t so far away from the low-20s, which in turn isn’t so far from the high-20s. They ultimately think politics will return to normal if Reform is dragged into serious scandal.

Maybe. But 17 per cent is no floor. If the Greens surge further, and if a Left-wing Labour politician assumes the leadership and becomes prime minister, then those pledging a Tory vote might think a Left-wing coalition is a real possibility. If they do, they’ll junk the Tories and vote for whoever looks most likely to keep the Left out. In this scenario, the Tories will go through the floor pre-election, all of a sudden.

The most intelligent Tories ought to be booking the private room at Nigel Farage’s favourite Boisdale restaurant and saving up to drop a few hundred quid on a bottle of claret. They have some pleading to do.

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Typing Is Being Replaced by Whispering—and It’s Way More Annoying - WSJ

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Technological Obsession: users now abandon traditional typing in favor of muttering into microphones to satisfy a desperate need for productivity.
  • Social Friction: domestic stability suffers as family members are forced to relocate to escape the constant, irritating droning of their partners' dictation habits.
  • Workplace Degradation: modern corporate offices are devolving into chaotic, noisy call centers where employees prioritize talking to machines over professional decorum.
  • Performative Productivity: venture capitalists and tech workers signal their status by utilizing specialized gear like gaming headsets, foot pedals, and broadcast microphones to interact with software.
  • Desperate Normalization: proponents attempt to justify these intrusive social behaviors by comparing them to the historical adoption of earlier mobile communication devices.
  • Corporate Piling: companies like wispr pivot from failed neural wearable fantasies to mass-market dictation apps after burning massive amounts of venture capital.
  • Technological Hype: the sudden popularity of these tools relies heavily on the latest buzzwords, encouraging workers to spend their time whispering prompts rather than engaging in meaningful manual input.
  • Social Alienation: the trend reinforces a culture where individuals prefer interacting with artificial personality surrogates over participating in human environments with other people.

May 10, 2026 5:30 am ET

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A Wispr employee uses a gooseneck microphone to dictate tasks throughout the workday.Goodbye keyboards. The latest productivity hack is dictation. Wispr
Mollie Amkraut Mueller’s mumbling was starting to get on her husband’s nerves. 
What was once a sacred nightly routine—putting the toddler to bed, collapsing onto the couch and opening their laptops to finish their work in peace—had become anything but peaceful. Instead of typing quietly, Amkraut Mueller started to hold down the function key and talk in hushed tones to her computer. 
Amkraut Mueller, who runs her own artificial-intelligence business in Seattle, is hooked on Wispr Flow, a dictation app that users are pairing with coding tools like Claude Code and Codex to turn rambling, stream-of-consciousness prompts into coherent, usable text in seconds.
Efficient, yes. Annoying, you bet.
It didn’t take long before Amkraut Mueller’s husband told her they needed to talk. The couple now often sit apart. “If we need to get something done at night, one of us will stay in our office,” she said.
Across Silicon Valley, work is being remade as once mellow spaces become dens of din.
One venture capitalist said visiting AI startups today is like showing up at a high-end call center—except everyone is chatting with AI. Engineers at credit-card startup Ramp sit at their desks wearing gaming headsets so they can talk loudly to their AI assistants. Gusto co-founder Edward Kim has encouraged employees at the human-resources company to experiment with dictation technology, telling them the office of the future will sound “more like a sales floor.”
He’s trying to set an example. “I’m talking to my computer all the time now,” said Kim, who happens to consider himself a decent typer. “I don’t type unless I absolutely have to.”
The only problem? Talking to yourself is weird, if not a little embarrassing.
A man dictates commands into his phone as he walks through an office.At Wispr, employees walk around talking to their devices. Wispr
At home, “you kind of feel like Tony Stark talking to Jarvis,” said Kim, referring to Iron Man and his AI assistant. At the office, “it’s just a little awkward.” 
Etiquette matters. Users try to keep their voices low and often wear headphones to block out sound from their dictating neighbors, dialing down the annoyance factor.
Dictation isn’t new technology, but until recently it hardly worked well enough to fulfill basic tasks. Apps like Wispr can now edit text in near real time, improving grammar and tone.
Those features have helped earn it a cult following. LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, a power user, has called himself “voicepilled.”
The most enthusiastic users have even bought programmable foot pedals, a gaming accessory, so they can activate Wispr with their toes. Others keep $60 gooseneck microphones—the bendable kind used by sports broadcasters and pastors—on their desks.
As the practice becomes more commonplace, so do the AI dictation apps. Early contenders like Aqua Voice and Willow, both Y Combinator-backed companies, have been joined by a growing wave of apps like TalkTastic, Typeless and Superwhisper. 
Wispr’s entrance into the category was something of an accident. 
The company, founded in 2021, originally planned to build a wearable device with a neural interface that could capture brain signals to control a computer or smartphone.
A Wispr employee dictates commands into a gooseneck microphone at her desk.Microphones and headphones are becoming more commonplace, helping lower the annoyance factor when everyone is whispering. Wispr
Eventually the company built a Bluetooth earpiece that felt like “pure magic,” said founder Tanay Kothari. When there wasn’t demand for the product, however, he had to downsize the team from 40 to four and focus instead on building its dictation tool.
Early last year, as developers started to embrace vibe coding, hype for Wispr’s dictation app started building. Wispr raised new funding in the fall that valued the company at roughly $700 million. It now has about 60 employees. 
At its San Francisco headquarters, wireless mics that attach to shirts are popular. 
“They just walk around the office talking to their computer,” said Kothari. “They don’t have to do their thinking sitting in front of a desk anymore.”
Wispr is also planning to sell branded microphones to customers.
Over time, this will all feel completely normal, Kothari insists.
“When the BlackBerrys came, staring at a piece of metal in your hand and doing things with it would look crazy to people,” he said, “but now it’s normal.”

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Satellite images show IDF airstrip built on dry lakebed in Iraq | Faytuks Network

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Airstrip Construction: makeshift runway created on dry lakebed near al nukhayb within twenty four hours
  • Operational Purpose: temporary forward arming and refueling point established to facilitate missions against iran
  • Military Presence: imagery confirms presence of support structures helicopters and ground vehicles at the remote site
  • Movement Patterns: formation of aircraft observed entering the clandestine base on march five followed by additional helicopter arrivals
  • Iraqi Engagement: local armed forces investigating activity near karbala reported gunfire and aerial bombardment during contact
  • Official Denials: united states central command rejected claims regarding involvement in the observed regional air operation
  • Site Dismantling: heavy rainfall destroyed the desert facility by late march effectively erasing the physical footprint
  • Strategic Sovereignty: use of territory highlights challenges regarding border monitoring and airspace authority within western iraq

Israeli forces appear to have built a makeshift airstrip on a dried-out lakebed in Iraq’s western desert on the night of March 1 into March 2, according to satellite imagery and other media reviewed by Faytuks Network intelligence and geolocation analysts.

The site, near al-Nukhayb in Anbar province, appears to have served as a temporary forward arming and refueling point for operations against Iran. By March 2, the dry lakebed near al-Nukhayb in Iraq’s Anbar province had been transformed.

Airstrip Opens

Image: Faytuks Network Intelligence/Planet Labs

Satellite imagery and other material reviewed by Faytuks Network intelligence and geolocation analysts show that a makeshift runway had been cut or marked across the lakebed overnight, turning what had appeared to be open desert into a temporary airstrip. Aircraft were visible at the site that morning, alongside what appeared to be temporary structures, support equipment or additional aircraft near the western edge of the operating area.

The site appears to have served as a temporary forward arming and refueling point for Israeli operations against Iran. Its location offered clear operational value: a remote desert lakebed, close enough to Iran to reduce flight distances and limit reliance on U.S. refueling aircraft, but isolated enough to be difficult for Iraqi authorities to monitor in real time.

The March 2 imagery shows several small objects clustered near the aircraft operating area. The resolution does not allow each object to be identified with certainty, but their placement suggests they were part of the temporary site. They may have been tents, light shelters, support vehicles, equipment or additional aircraft.

Seven objects consistent with helicopter airframes were visible south of the support cluster. A dirt road also appeared to run toward the airstrip, indicating recent ground access into an area that, one day earlier, had shown no obvious signs of military activity.

Aircraft Arrive

The pace of activity increased quickly. On March 5, a large formation of aircraft entered the base, according to footage reviewed by the Network.

Video courtese NayaForIraq/Telegram

On March 6, two more Chinook helicopters were seen entering the site. By then, the temporary structures visible in earlier imagery were no longer present.

Clashes with the Iraqis

Local officials said Iraqi forces had been sent to investigate reports of foreign military activity in the Najaf-Karbala desert. Zuhair al-Fatlawi, a member of parliament from Karbala province, said a force believed at the time to be American had entered the area by helicopter under air cover and deployed about 40 kilometers from al-Nukhayb.

Al-Fatlawi said the Iraqi reconnaissance force came under gunfire and aerial bombardment during the mission, killing one fighter, wounding two others and damaging a vehicle. Another lawmaker, Mohammed Jassim al-Khafaji, said about 30 Iraqi army Humvees from the Karbala Operations Command had been sent to assess the area before they were struck.

U.S. Central Command later denied carrying out an airdrop operation in Najaf province.

The site remained active after the March 6 incident. On March 14, another group of aircraft was spotted near the base at night, according to video shared with Faytuks Network.

Video courtesy S0nia10/Telegram

By March 20, the base appeared to have been destroyed by rainfall, satellite imagery shows.

The timeline points to a short-lived but significant Israeli presence inside Iraq. In less than 24 hours, a dry lakebed was turned into an airstrip. Within days, aircraft were moving through the site in formation. Within three weeks, the base had effectively disappeared.

The forward airbase site on March 10, 2026. Image: PlanetLabs

For Israel, the base suggests a wider force projection network than was visible from public reporting at the time. A forward arming and refueling point in Iraq would have allowed aircraft to stage closer to Iran, extend operational reach and preserve flexibility during sustained air operations.

For Baghdad, the implications are more serious. The apparent use of Iraqi territory by a foreign military force raises questions about sovereignty, airspace control and the government’s ability to monitor remote desert corridors. Al-Nukhayb lies in Anbar province, near the Karbala-Najaf desert corridor, where distance, terrain and overlapping security authority make real-time oversight difficult.

The force makeup, exact site composition and total number of sorties through the site remain unclear. But the imagery and video reviewed by Faytuks Network show a temporary airstrip that appeared almost overnight, supported aircraft for several days and then vanished after heavy rain.

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For Palantir, AI Is a Product, a Punching Bag—and a Problem - WSJ

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Corporate Rhetoric: executives repeatedly dismiss ai model outputs as unrefined slop to maintain a narrative of necessity.
  • Market Positioning: the company attempts to frame itself as a critical refinery for raw, unreliable data models produced by competitors.
  • Internal Contradictions: leadership claims to develop sophisticated ai products while relying on third-party models that may eventually render their software redundant.
  • Competitive Threats: former employees and rival firms are actively building data platforms that mirror existing service capabilities.
  • Financial Volatility: share prices have declined despite record revenue, reflecting deep investor skepticism regarding long-term defensibility.
  • Institutional Reliance: government contracts remain the primary revenue shield, masking the fragility of their commercial service model.
  • Operational Limitations: specialized defense requirements constrain the company's ability to compete with lightweight, field-deployable ai solutions.
  • Growth Deceleration: commercial booking speed is beginning to stagnate as market competition from agile tech startups intensifies.

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Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, speaking at a conference in April 2025.Palantir CEO Alex Karp frequently derides AI ‘slop.’ Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Palantir Technologies owes much of its recent success to the rise of artificial intelligence, but that doesn’t mean the company’s leaders like it. “Slop,” executives declared, a total of 17 times, during a call with investors this past week, portraying the outputs of the major AI labs as too messy and unreliable for big enterprises.

“They should go out and flirt with all this slop,” Chief Executive Alex Karp said about companies that are shopping for AI. “Mostly they come home to Palantir.”

The company has long looked askance at AI. A decade ago, long before ChatGPT or Claude Code, Karp viewed AI as little more than an ad-targeting tool, people familiar with the matter said. He believed machines needed human intelligence to perform effectively and would point staff to an example of AI’s losing a game of chess to a human grandmaster.

Palantir learned to embrace AI, if not always enthusiastically, and offered it broadly to customers starting in 2023. The public swipes Palantir executives are taking at the quality of work coming from the AI labs these days reflect a concern increasingly familiar to the American worker: Palantir is at risk of being replaced, or at least rendered less necessary, by AI, according to AI company executives, current and former Palantir employees, and analysts who follow the company.

Corporate AI adoption has so far helped fuel Palantir’s blistering revenue growth as companies use large language models from OpenAI, Anthropic and Alphabet’s Google to manipulate information within Palantir’s data platform. Its growing defense-sector dominance and free access to the Trump administration, paired with Karp’s triumphalist rhetoric, has created an aura of invincibility.

Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar said in an interview that cheaper and open-source models have driven more business to Palantir. “We win when models get better, cheaper and more capable,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “The labs aren’t our competitors. They’re our supply chain.”

Shyam Sankar, CTO of Palantir, speaks onstage at a conference in 2025.Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar says Palantir benefits when models get better and cheaper. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

The decoupling of Palantir’s share price, down around 20% this year, from its ascendant top and bottom lines represents a bet by investors that new tools offered by the big AI labs, or made using their tools, could make Palantir’s expensive software less compelling to customers, exposing it to forces that have dragged down share prices across the software sector this year. Some experts estimate that the large language models can already replicate a majority of what Palantir does to make sense of large data sets.

In one direct threat, OpenAI is building a platform for connecting and structuring data that some said competes with Palantir, staffed in part by ex-Palantir employees, people familiar with the matter said. OpenAI and Anthropic have both raised funds at valuations above Palantir’s market capitalization.

Both companies have also replicated Palantir’s much-emulated practice of employing “forward-deployed engineers” who can embed within customers’ workforces to help drive adoption. On the call with shareholders this past Monday, Sankar appeared to take a jab at those efforts, saying the labs were trying to imitate Palantir.

Palantir reported another banner quarter of earnings, with record revenue and profit. It posted U.S. sales that more than doubled from the year prior. Yet cracks are starting to show. Among them: Growth in U.S. commercial bookings slowed to 45% from 137% in the prior quarter.

“It appears that competition with Anthropic and OpenAI is intensifying,” Louie DiPalma, an analyst at William Blair, wrote in a note.

Palantir sells software to centralize, manage and analyze large amounts of data, helping government agencies and private companies derive insights and make decisions such as supply-chain planning or where to drop munitions. Two decades after its founding, Palantir hit its groove: It turned a profit for the first time in 2023.

For a long time, AI didn’t work, at least not well, and Palantir mostly steered clear. The company only turned to AI seriously after the launch of ChatGPT, which was built with help from an early and senior Palantir employee, people familiar with the events said.

That launch brought AI to the consumer mainstream, touching off a mad scramble for tech companies to update their AI plans. In 2023, Karp announced to the world that the company had a new AI product that was “currently under development.” The revelation caught his own engineers by surprise; they weren’t building any such product, the Journal previously reported.

Palantir’s new positioning set it up to benefit from the gold rush into AI: Its stock is up around 1,600% since it unveiled its Artificial Intelligence Platform. But it is still mostly not an AI company. It doesn’t build models. AIP imports models from other companies that help make Palantir’s software more powerful, and Palantir executives argue that their software makes many models more functional, reducing the slop.

Palantir employees said language models are like crude oil, and Palantir is the refinery to make the models consumable. Yet many believe it is only a matter of time before the oil can do its own refining.

“The debate on Palantir isn’t growth. It’s whether they sit at a must-have layer of the AI stack, or if it’s just an expensive wrapper around AI models that are getting cheaper,” said Jake Behan, head of capital markets at Direxion, an asset manager.

Palantir continues to have a stronghold in its government business, where its early start in the defense sector and deep relationships in Washington limit its vulnerabilities. In the first year of the second Trump administration, Palantir was awarded more than $1.1 billion in federal contracts, a 70% increase from the prior year.

Palantir has become the operating system for the Defense Department. Its command-and-control Maven Smart System is set to become an official program of record, a highly desired status for defense contracts.

AI companies vying for a spot in the Pentagon said Palantir has in effect become a gatekeeper. The inciting incident in the quarrel that led to the Pentagon’s labeling Anthropic as a supply-chain risk and banning its use in defense work was a meeting between Palantir and Anthropic employees at which an Anthropic employee asked how the company’s Claude model was used in the January military operation in Venezuela, the Journal previously reported.

But even the Pentagon is expanding beyond Palantir. With a mandate to move quickly on AI, Pentagon leadership is extending model adoption from headquarters to the field where soldiers operate. The more-lightweight models that startups are designing to run on soldiers’ phones or drones often aren’t compatible with Palantir, AI startup executives said. Palantir has responded with a new version of Maven that works on drones.

Ben Van Roo, co-founder of the AI defense startup Legion Intelligence, said that Palantir’s Maven has been a success but that “it’s a subset of workflows out of thousands” in the department. There is a need for many more AI solutions that can help with intelligence gathering, logistics and other aspects of war that will happen outside Palantir. “That’s the decade ahead,” he said.

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Heather Somerville is a reporter at The Wall Street Journal in San Francisco covering technology and national security. Her articles explore the national-security implications of emerging technology, U.S. efforts to counter China's rise as a technology power, and the relationship between Silicon Valley and the U.S. defense complex.

Heather joined the Journal in 2019 to cover venture capital and technology companies. Before that, she wrote about venture capital and Silicon Valley startups for Reuters and the Mercury News. She was previously a reporter for the Fresno Bee and the Charlotte Observer and wrote about national security for outlets in Washington, D.C.


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Friends Don't Let Friends Use Ollama | Sleeping Robots

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Unearned Popularity: the project achieved its market position by being a first-mover wrapper for llama.cpp rather than through technical innovation.
  • Attribution Evasion: the maintainers intentionally obscured their reliance on upstream technology by failing to provide required license notices for over a year.
  • Engine Inferiority: attempts to build a proprietary inference backend resulted in significant performance regression and compatibility bugs compared to the original engine.
  • Deceptive Branding: the platform deliberately mislabels smaller distilled models as full-scale releases to artificially inflate download metrics.
  • Questionable Openness: the release of a closed-source binary and the subsequent silence on licensing concerns deviate from the project's foundation in open-source principles.
  • Restrictive Workflows: user-defined configuration files unnecessarily duplicate existing metadata and force bloated storage patterns that hinder efficiency.
  • Cloud Encroachment: the shift toward hosted services compromises the initial mission of private local inference by routing data through external entities.
  • Venture Capital Incentives: strategic decisions prioritize investor-friendly lock-in metrics and proprietary packaging over community health and ecosystem contribution.

Ollama is the most popular way to run local LLMs. It shouldn’t be. It gained that position by being first, the first tool that made llama.cpp accessible to people who didn’t want to compile C++ or write their own server configs. That was a real contribution, briefly. But the project has since spent years systematically obscuring where its actual technology comes from, misleading users about what they’re running, and drifting from the local-first mission that earned it trust in the first place. All while taking venture capital money.

This isn’t a “both sides” piece. I’ve used Ollama. I’ve moved on. Here’s why you should too.

#A llama.cpp Wrapper With Amnesia

Ollama’s entire inference capability comes from llama.cpp, the C++ inference engine created by Georgi Gerganov in March 2023. Gerganov’s project is what made it possible to run LLaMA models on consumer laptops at all, he hacked together the first version in an evening, and it kicked off the entire local LLM movement. Today llama.cpp has over 100,000 stars on GitHub, 450+ contributors, and is the foundation that nearly every GGUF-based tool depends on.

Ollama was founded in 2021 by Jeffrey Morgan and Michael Chiang, both previously behind Kitematic, a Docker GUI that was acquired by Docker Inc. They went through Y Combinator’s Winter 2021 batch, raised pre-seed funding, and launched publicly in 2023. From day one, the pitch was “Docker for LLMs”, a convenient wrapper that downloads and runs models with a single command. Under the hood, it was llama.cpp doing all the work.

For over a year, Ollama’s README contained no mention of llama.cpp. Not in the README, not on the website, not in their marketing materials. The project’s binary distributions didn’t include the required MIT license notice for the llama.cpp code they were shipping. This isn’t a matter of open-source etiquette, the MIT license has exactly one major requirement: include the copyright notice. Ollama didn’t.

The community noticed. GitHub issue #3185 was opened in early 2024 requesting license compliance. It went over 400 days without a response from maintainers. When issue #3697 was opened in April 2024 specifically requesting llama.cpp acknowledgment, community PR #3700 followed within hours. Ollama’s co-founder Michael Chiang eventually added a single line to the bottom of the README: “llama.cpp project founded by Georgi Gerganov.”

The response to the PR was revealing. Ollama’s team wrote: “We spend a large chunk of time fixing and patching it up to ensure a smooth experience for Ollama users… Overtime, we will be transitioning to more systematically built engines.” Translation: we’re not going to give llama.cpp prominent credit, and we plan to distance ourselves from it anyway.

As one Hacker News commenter put it: “I’m continually puzzled by their approach, it’s such self-inflicted negative PR. Building on llama is perfectly valid and they’re adding value on ease of use here. Just give the llama team proper credit.” Another: “The fact that Ollama has been downplaying their reliance on llama.cpp has been known in the local LLM community for a long time.”

#The Fork That Made Things Worse

In mid-2025, Ollama followed through on that distancing. They moved away from using llama.cpp as their inference backend and built a custom implementation directly on top of ggml, the lower-level tensor library that llama.cpp itself uses. Their stated reason was stability, llama.cpp moves fast and breaks things, and Ollama’s enterprise partners need reliability.

The result was the opposite. Ollama’s custom backend reintroduced bugs that llama.cpp had solved years ago. Community members flagged broken structured output support, vision model failures, and GGML assertion crashes across multiple versions. Models that worked fine in upstream llama.cpp failed in Ollama, including new releases like GPT-OSS 20B, where Ollama’s implementation lacked support for tensor types that the model required. Georgi Gerganov himself identified that Ollama had forked and made bad changes to GGML.

The irony is thick. They downplayed their dependence on llama.cpp for years, then when they finally tried to go it alone, they produced an inferior version of the thing they refused to credit.

Benchmarks tell the story. Multiple community tests show llama.cpp running 1.8x faster than Ollama on the same hardware with the same model, 161 tokens per second versus 89. On CPU, the gap is 30-50%. A recent comparison on Qwen-3 Coder 32B showed ~70% higher throughput with llama.cpp. The performance overhead comes from Ollama’s daemon layer, poor GPU offloading heuristics, and a vendored backend that trails upstream.

#Misleading Model Naming

When DeepSeek released its R1 model family in January 2025, Ollama listed the smaller distilled versions, models like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, which are fine-tuned Qwen and Llama models, not the actual 671-billion-parameter R1, simply as “DeepSeek-R1” in their library and CLI. Running ollama run deepseek-r1 pulls an 8B Qwen-derived distillate that behaves nothing like the real model.

This wasn’t an oversight. DeepSeek themselves named these models with the “R1-Distill” prefix. Hugging Face listed them correctly. Ollama stripped the distinction. The result was a flood of social media posts from people claiming they were running “DeepSeek-R1” on consumer hardware, followed by confusion about why it performed poorly, doing reputational damage to DeepSeek in the process.

GitHub issues #8557 and #8698 requested separation of the models. Both were closed as duplicates with no fix. As of today, ollama run deepseek-r1 still launches a tiny distilled model. Ollama knew the difference and chose to obscure it, presumably because “DeepSeek-R1” drives more downloads than “DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B” does.

#The Closed-Source App

In July 2025, Ollama released a GUI desktop app for macOS and Windows. The app was developed in a private repository (github.com/ollama/app), shipped without a license, and the source code wasn’t publicly available. For a project that had built its reputation on being open-source, this was a jarring move.

Community members immediately raised concerns. The license issue received 40 upvotes. Developers found potential AGPL-3.0 dependencies in the binary. The website placed the download button next to a GitHub link, giving the impression users were downloading the MIT-licensed open-source tool when they were actually getting an unlicensed closed-source application. Maintainers were silent for months. The code was eventually merged into the main repo in November 2025, but the initial rollout revealed where the project’s instincts lie.

As XDA put it: “If your project trades on being open source, you do not get to be vague about what is and is not open at launch.”

#The Modelfile: Reinventing a Solved Problem

GGUF, the model format created by Georgi Gerganov, was designed with one core principle: single-file deployment. Bullet point #1 in the GGUF spec reads: “Full information: all information needed to load a model is contained in the model file, and no additional information needs to be provided by the user.” Chat templates, stop tokens, model metadata, it’s all embedded in the file. You point llama.cpp at a GGUF and it works.

Ollama added the Modelfile on top of this. It’s a separate configuration file, inspired by Dockerfiles, naturally, that specifies the base model, chat template, system prompt, sampling parameters, and stop tokens. Most of this information already exists inside the GGUF file. As one Hacker News commenter put it: “We literally just got rid of that multi-file chaos only for Ollama to add it back.”

The problems with this approach compound quickly. Ollama only auto-detects chat templates it already knows about from a hardcoded list. If a GGUF file has a valid Jinja chat template embedded in its metadata but it doesn’t match one of Ollama’s known templates, Ollama falls back to a bare {{ .Prompt }} template, silently breaking the model’s instruction format. The user has to manually extract the chat template from the GGUF, translate it into Go template syntax (which is different from Jinja), and write it into a Modelfile. Meanwhile, llama.cpp reads the embedded template and just uses it.

Modifying parameters is worse. If you want to change the temperature or system prompt on a model you pulled from Ollama’s registry, the workflow is: export the Modelfile with ollama show --modelfile, edit it, then run ollama create to build a new model entry. Users have reported that this process copies the entire model, 30 to 60 GB, to change one parameter. As one user described it: “The ‘modelfile’ workflow is a pain in the booty. It’s a dogwater pattern and I hate it. Some of these models are 30 to 60GB and copying the entire thing to change one parameter is just dumb.”

Compare this to llama.cpp, where parameters are command-line flags. Want a different temperature? Pass --temp 0.7. Different system prompt? Pass it in the API request. No files to create, no gigabytes to copy, no proprietary format to learn.

The Modelfile also locks users into Ollama’s Go template syntax, which is a different language from the Jinja templates that model creators actually publish. LM Studio accepts Jinja templates directly. llama.cpp reads them from the GGUF. Only Ollama requires you to translate between template languages, and gets it wrong often enough that entire GitHub issues are dedicated to mismatched templates between Ollama’s library and the upstream GGUF metadata.

#The Registry Bottleneck

When a new model drops, say a new Qwen, Gemma, or DeepSeek variant, GGUFs typically appear on Hugging Face within hours, quantized by community members like Unsloth or Bartowski. With llama.cpp, you can run them immediately: llama-server -hf unsloth/Qwen3.5-35B-A3B-GGUF:Q4_K_M. One command, straight from Hugging Face, no intermediary.

With Ollama, you wait. Someone at Ollama has to package the model for their registry, choose which quantizations to offer (typically just Q4_K_M and Q8_0, no Q5, Q6, or IQ quants), convert the chat template to Go format, and push it. Until then, the model doesn’t exist in Ollama’s world unless you do the Modelfile dance yourself.

This creates a recurring pattern on r/LocalLLaMA: new model launches, people try it through Ollama, it’s broken or slow or has botched chat templates, and the model gets blamed instead of the runtime. A recent PSA post titled “If you want to test new models, use llama.cpp/transformers/vLLM/SGLang” documented how Qwen models showed problems with tool calls and garbage responses that “only happen with Ollama” due to their vendored backend and broken template handling. As one commenter put it: “Friends don’t let friends use ollama.”

The quantization limitation is particularly frustrating. Ollama only supports creating Q4_K_S, Q4_K_M, Q8_0, F16, and F32 quantizations. If you need Q5_K_M, Q6_K, or any IQ quant, formats that llama.cpp has supported for years, you’re out of luck unless you do the quantization yourself outside of Ollama. When a user asked about Q2_K support, the response was effectively “use a different tool.” For a project that markets itself as the easy way to run models, telling users to go elsewhere for basic quantization options is telling.

Hugging Face eventually added support for ollama run hf.co/{repo}:{quant} by generating a Docker-style manifest on the fly, which partially addresses the availability problem. But even then, the file gets copied into Ollama’s hashed blob storage, you still can’t share the GGUF with other tools, and the template detection issues still apply. The fundamental architecture remains: Ollama inserts itself as a middleman between you and your models, and that middleman is slower, less capable, and less compatible than the tools it sits on top of.

#The Cloud Pivot

In late 2025, Ollama introduced cloud-hosted models alongside its local library. The tool that was synonymous with local, private inference started routing prompts to third-party cloud providers. Proprietary models like MiniMax appeared in the model list without clear disclosure that selecting them would send your data off-machine.

Users raised concerns about data routing, when you run a closed-source model like MiniMax-m2.7 through “Ollama Cloud,” your prompts may be forwarded to the external provider who actually hosts the model. Ollama’s own documentation says “we process your prompts and responses to provide the service but do not store or log that content,” but says nothing about what the third-party provider does with it. For models hosted by Alibaba Cloud, users noted there is no zero-data-retention guarantee.

This was compounded by CVE-2025-51471, a token exfiltration vulnerability that affects all Ollama versions. A malicious registry server can trick Ollama into sending its authentication token to an attacker-controlled endpoint during a normal model pull. The fix exists as a PR but took months to land. In a tool that built its brand on local privacy, a vulnerability that leaks credentials to arbitrary servers is not a minor issue, it’s an architectural philosophy problem.

#The VC Pattern

All of this makes more sense when you look at the incentive structure. Ollama is a Y Combinator-backed (W21) startup, founded by engineers who previously built a Docker GUI that was acquired by Docker Inc. The playbook is familiar: wrap an existing open-source project in a user-friendly interface, build a user base, raise money, then figure out monetization.

The progression follows the pattern cleanly:

  1. Launch on open source, build on llama.cpp, gain community trust
  2. Minimize attribution, make the product look self-sufficient to investors
  3. Create lock-in, proprietary model registry format, hashed filenames that don’t work with other tools
  4. Launch closed-source components, the GUI app
  5. Add cloud services, the monetization vector

The model registry is worth examining. Ollama stores downloaded models using hashed filenames in its own format. If you’ve been pulling models through Ollama for months, you can’t just point llama.cpp or LM Studio at those files without extra work. You can bring your own GGUFs to Ollama via a Modelfile, but it’s deliberately friction-filled to take them out. This is a form of vendor lock-in that most users don’t notice until they try to leave.

#What To Use Instead

The tools Ollama wraps are directly accessible, and they’re not much harder to set up.

llama.cpp is the engine. It has an OpenAI-compatible API server (llama-server), a built-in web UI, full control over context windows and sampling parameters, and consistently better throughput than Ollama. In February 2026, Gerganov’s ggml.ai joined Hugging Face to ensure the long-term sustainability of the project. It’s truly community-driven, MIT-licensed, and under active development with 450+ contributors.

Mozilla’s llamafile takes the single-file idea further, it packages a model and the runtime into one executable that runs on six OSes with no install at all. Download, double-click, done.

llama-swap handles multi-model orchestration, loading, unloading, and hot-swapping models on demand behind a single API endpoint. Pair it with LiteLLM and you get a unified OpenAI-compatible proxy that routes across multiple backends with proper model aliasing.

If you want a desktop GUI, you have genuinely open-source options. Jan (AGPLv3) is a local-first chat app with a clean interface and full source code. koboldcpp (AGPL) is a llama.cpp fork with a built-in web UI and extensive configuration, fully open, fully auditable. Both are real FOSS projects, not wrappers hiding proprietary code behind an open-source engine.

Then there are the closed-source wrappers. LM Studio is proprietary software built on top of llama.cpp, and it’s the most popular alternative to Ollama for good reason: it offers the same one-click convenience with a proper GUI, accepts any GGUF, and exposes all the knobs. Crucially, LM Studio’s developers have acted in good faith toward the ecosystem. They maintain a proper acknowledgements page crediting llama.cpp and its license, and they don’t try to obscure what’s under the hood. It’s a closed-source product, but it’s not a parasitic one. Msty is another closed-source GUI sitting on top of open-source inference, with multi-model support and built-in RAG.

I’m not opposed to someone building a business by making FOSS convenient. That’s legitimate. But it’s worth being honest about what these tools are: commercial products that exist because of llama.cpp, not open-source alternatives to Ollama. The difference between a good-faith wrapper and a bad-faith one isn’t whether they charge money or ship proprietary code, it’s whether they respect the work they stand on. LM Studio does. Ollama didn’t.

Red Hat’s ramalama is worth a look too, a container-native model runner that explicitly credits its upstream dependencies front and center. Exactly what Ollama should have done from the start.

None of these tools require more than a few minutes to set up. The idea that Ollama is the only accessible option hasn’t been true for a long time.

#The Bigger Picture

Georgi Gerganov hacked together llama.cpp in an evening in March 2023 and kicked off a revolution in local AI. He and a community of hundreds of contributors have spent years making it possible to run increasingly powerful models on consumer hardware. That work is genuinely important, it’s the foundation that keeps local inference open and accessible.

Ollama wrapped that work in a nice CLI, raised VC money on the back of it, spent over a year refusing to credit it, forked it badly, shipped a closed-source app alongside it, and then pivoted the whole thing toward cloud services. At every decision point where they could have been good open-source citizens, they chose the path that made them look more self-sufficient to investors.

The local LLM ecosystem doesn’t need Ollama. It needs llama.cpp. The rest is packaging, and better packaging already exists.

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bogorad
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Secret document reveals Russia’s plans to aid Iran

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Document Origin: an unverified ten page proposal allegedly drafted by russian intelligence for iranian use.
  • Proposed Equipment: a theoretical transfer of 5,000 fibre optic drones alongside unidentified satellite guided weaponry.
  • Strategic Objective: an ambitious attempt to disrupt american maritime and ground operations within the persian gulf.
  • Tactical Advantage: utilizing wire guided technology to bypass existing radio frequency jamming measures.
  • Recruitment Plan: finding potential drone pilots among iranian students in russia and various regional syrian proxies.
  • Infrastructure Vulnerabilities: specific focus on targeting slow moving american landing craft near the strait of hormuz.
  • Lack Of Confirmation: total absence of proof that the plan was ever delivered or effectively implemented.
  • Geopolitical Speculation: questionable reliance on circumventing starlink restrictions in regions outside of the ongoing ukrainian conflict.

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THERE ARE many reasons why America’s war on Iran has been failing. One of them is the effectiveness of Iranian drones. Now a confidential document obtained by The Economist from a trusted source suggests that Russia has offered to provide Iran with unjammable drones and training on how to use them against American troops in the Gulf and perhaps elsewhere.

Until now, Vladimir Putin’s government is thought to have provided intelligence that enabled Iran to target American forces in the Middle East. This is the first evidence that it may also have offered to supply innovative weapons in large enough numbers to inflict many casualties on American and allied forces, we can exclusively report.

The secret plan involves Russia providing Iran with 5,000 short-range fibre-optic drones of the sort used in the war in Ukraine, an unknown number of longer-range satellite-guided drones, and training to use both sorts. It is contained in a ten-page proposal prepared by the GRU, the intelligence arm of Russia’s armed forces, for presentation to Iran. We have been able to examine the ten-page proposal, which contains six diagrams and a map depicting islands off the coast of Iran.

Though the document we saw was undated, we estimate that it was drafted within the first six weeks of the war, when there appeared to be a real chance of President Donald Trump ordering ground troops to attack Iranian territory, potentially to seize Kharg Island, an important oil terminal. We do not have direct evidence to confirm that the document was passed to the Iranians, whether any of the drones reached Iran, or if the promised training programme has begun.

Map: The Economist

Regional intelligence sources briefed on the plan said they considered it plausible, but were unable to independently corroborate it. Christo Grozev, an expert on Russia’s intelligence services, says the proposal is consistent with other evidence that the GRU is looking for ways of increasing Russian support for Iran during its war with America and Israel. And it fits with evidence emerging across the region of closer military co-operation between Russia and Iran.

In late March, for instance, Western intelligence officials said that Russia was preparing to send Iran its own upgraded versions of the long-range Shahed-type drones that it initially bought from Iran in 2022 and started producing in 2023. The Russian versions can better evade air defences and carry heavier payloads, but do not represent a step-change in capability.

Fibre-optic drones, by contrast, have transformed the battlefield in Ukraine by creating large “grey zones” in which vehicles and soldiers in the open are attacked remorselessly. Instead of being guided using radio signals, which can be jammed, operators control them through thin wires that spool out behind them. Operators can use them to conduct pin-point attacks at ranges of over 40km.

An FPV drone.Photograph: Alexander Polegenko/TASS via ZUMA Press/Eyevine

Such fibre-optic drones have recently surfaced in Lebanon, where they have been used by Hizbullah, an Iranian proxy, to attack Israeli forces. Israeli officials confirm these have been supplied by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s most powerful military force, but were unwilling to say whether they were originally from Russia.

Fibre-optic drones emerged in the war in Ukraine in 2024 as a way of countering the jammers that both sides used to defeat radio-controlled drones. Russia used them to devastating effect the following year after mass-producing them. Although less manoeuvrable than their wireless counterparts, they transmit sharper video imagery and give out no radio signals that an enemy could use to locate and attack the operator.

The second part of the secret Russian plan is the provision to Iran of long-range satellite-guided drones equipped with Starlink terminals. Russia had used these to locate and either evade or attack Ukrainian air defences. They were highly effective against Ukrainian logistics, even when operating well beyond the frontlines. In 2026, however, Elon Musk denied Russia’s armed forces access to Starlink by blocking all terminals operating in Ukraine except for those on a “white list” approved by Ukraine’s government. The Russian proposal suggests these drones could instead be diverted and used in the Middle East, which has no such restrictions. Though it speculates that Starlink connectivity there would also be shut off in time, they could still inflict “disorder” on American forces in the interim.

The third element of the plan is training. The document proposes recruiting drone operators from among an estimated 10,000 Iranian students studying in Russian universities. Other communities that could potentially be tapped are Tajiks, who speak both Russian and a version of Persian, and the Alawite minority in Syria, loyal to the ousted regime of Bashar al-Assad. All would be screened for loyalty and against religious extremism, the proposal suggests.

The text of the GRU report suggests that it was written at a time when the main threat facing Iran was an American amphibious assault to open the Strait of Hormuz or to seize Kharg Island. It notes that American landing craft would be particularly vulnerable to drone attack, because of their slow speed. A diagram illustrates how Russian-trained Iranian drone operators could attack a landing flotilla by launching swarms of five or six drones from hidden positions some 15-30km away. Although it now seems very unlikely that America will try to land troops in Iran, the prospect of this concerned Russian and Iranian officials earlier in the war.

The GRU document notes that Russia is heavily committed in the fifth year of its “special military operation” in Ukraine. This would limit the resources it can allocate to helping Iran. The proposal also points out that Russia would be taking political and military risks by becoming more involved in the war in Iran. But limited assistance would complicate any American operation. It would also remain deniable, the document suggests, which would avoid dragging Russia into open conflict with America. 

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bogorad
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