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URGENT: A huge win in Berenson v Biden - by Alex Berenson

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Legal Settlement: a private individual secured a six figure payment from the federal government to resolve a lawsuit regarding alleged first amendment violations.
  • Administrative Admission: the state purportedly acknowledged acting coercively toward social media companies to suppress specific viewpoints.
  • Strategic Pivot: the legal focus now shifts from the government to corporate entities including pfizer executives and a board member.
  • Constitutional Claims: a narrative is being constructed around the supposed right of unvaccinated groups to constitutional protections against speech interference.
  • Corporate Allegations: private actors are accused of orchestrating a conspiracy by influencing white house officials to remove content from digital platforms.
  • Appellate Ambition: judicial validation is being sought at the second circuit level to revive discovery requests and access internal communications.
  • Financial Solicitation: continuous appeals for monetary support from the public are being made to sustain ongoing litigation against private pharmaceutical companies.
  • Heroic Narrative: an grandiose internal framing depicts a personal quest for truth despite the perceived indifference of traditional media institutions.

Goodbye Berenson v (Joe) Biden.

Hello Berenson v (Albert) Bourla.

Today, the Trump Administration and I settled the federal government’s role in Berenson v Biden, my lawsuit against Biden Administration and Pfizer officials for violating my Constitutional rights and forcing Twitter to ban me in summer 2021.

After three hard-fought years, this settlement marks a massive win in my fight to hold the government and Pfizer accountable for their conspiracy to silence me. I could not have done it without your support. (Or Elon Musk’s.)

The agreement includes a six-figure payment and a statement “the Government did in fact violate the First Amendment by exerting substantial coercive pressure on social media companies such as Twitter to suppress disfavored speech like Plaintiff’s.”

James Lawrence, my (very able) lawyer, and I believe this settlement marks the first time any individual American has received a cash payment to resolve a lawsuit over government coercion of social media companies.

More importantly, the government’s admission may prove crucial as my suit moves ahead against its remaining defendants, Pfizer board member Dr. Scott Gottlieb and chairman Dr. Albert Bourla.

I am pleased the Trump administration recognized the Biden White House’s violations of my rights and chose to settle with me despite my recent criticism of Trump. At least in my case, the White House is practicing what it preaches on the First Amendment. A thank-you is in order.

(I will never, never, NEVER stop fighting for the First Amendment and the truth. Join me.)

The battle is won. But the war is not over.

While the settlement releases the government from the case, it leaves us open to pursue Bourla and Gottlieb for their role in the conspiracy. That conspiracy was not just against me, but against all unvaccinated people who were reading and listening to me as the Biden Administration prepared to force mRNA jabs on healthy adults.

And we are pushing ahead, by asking the federal Second Circuit of Appeals in New York City to find Covid unvaccinated people deserve the same First Amendment protections as a group as many other disfavored groups do.

(Scott Gottlieb does his Scott Gottlieb thing. Yes, he was talking about me. Somehow he forgot to mention in this email that he was getting paid by company that sold about $100 billion in mRNA jabs. Oops!

Todd O’Boyle was Twitter’s top White House lobbyist in 2021. You can smell the swamp fumes from here. Or maybe that’s just Gottlieb’s hair oil.)

The settlement came on the eve of the government’s deadline to file a response to our appeal, after Judge Jessica G.L. Clarke dismissed our lawsuit last fall.

Our complaint contained ample evidence Gottlieb worked with Biden administration officials to force Twitter to ban me in 2021, even as Twitter’s most senior executives questioned if I had done anything to violate the platform’s terms of service. Bourla contacted top officials at the same time, including a White House meeting with Ron Klain, Biden’s chief of staff.

In fact, it was Gottlieb’s direct appeal to Twitter’s White House lobbyist over my famous Aug. 28, 2021 “It doesn’t stop infection” tweet that led directly to my ban.

In general, private companies and individuals cannot directly violate First Amendment rights. But a federal law known as 1985(3) gives plaintiffs the right to sue in federal courts over conspiracies that keep them from “having and exercising any right or privilege of a citizen of the United States.”

Federal courts have generally construed 1985(3) narrowly. But the conspiracy between Gottlieb, Bourla, and the federal government in 2021 is clearly the type of behavior for which the statute creates liability.

(I hope so much that one day I’ll get to see Pfizer and Scott Gottlieb try to defend banning me over this tweet to a jury. Even a New York jury.)

The question James Lawrence and I will ask the Second Circuit to answer is not whether federal or state governments may require vaccinations. It is whether unvaccinated people have the same rights to speak to each other as people who are vaccinated.1 And the government’s acknowledgement in its settlement that it did in fact violate those First Amendment rights makes my case stronger.

If we win at the Second Circuit, our lawsuit will be alive back in front of Judge Clarke. And we will get the discovery about the communications between the White House and Pfizer in summer 2021 I have been fighting to see for three years.

If we lose at the Second Circuit, we’ll go to the Supreme Court and try there.

Three years in, the fight has only begun.

But today is a good day. A very, very good day. The mainstream media might even have to take notice (though I’m not counting on it).

(And any day is a good day to subscribe! Catch up on the paywalled history of Berenson v BidenBourla)

Note: that six-figure settlement should cover us through the Second Circuit appeal.

But hopefully we will soon be back before Judge Clarke, fighting Pfizer for depositions, discovery, and the chance to get to a jury.

And over the last four years, beginning with Berenson v Twitter, I’ve realized many of you give because you want to stand with me in this fight.

If that’s how you feel, you can still donate:

Via GiveSendGo

Via GoFundMe

You can also Venmo me at Alex-Berenson-3

Or send a check to James Lawrence at Envisage Law, PO Box 30099
Raleigh, North Carolina 27622

Donations of all sizes welcome — this is about standing together.

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We have other arguments too, including whether Gottlieb and Bourla interfered with my contract with Twitter, but this one is the most important legally and constitutionally.

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bogorad
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Boycotting Spain will not show Eurovision on TV // The public broadcasters for Spain, Ireland and Slovenia said Monday they will not show the 70th anniversary Eurovision Song Contest this week, as they boycott the TV extravaganza over Israel's participation.

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  • Participation decline: A total of five nations, including the Netherlands and Iceland, have withdrawn from the 70th Eurovision Song Contest, resulting in the lowest participation count of 35 countries since 2004.
  • Geopolitical tensions: The official withdrawal of multiple countries follows mounting controversy regarding Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip.
  • Media assertions: Broadcasters and external organizations have voiced allegations concerning the manipulation of televoting systems and restrictions on journalistic access to conflict zones.
  • Alternative programming: Public broadcasters in Slovenia, Ireland, and Spain are replacing standard Eurovision coverage with independent national programming, including thematic specials and sitcoms.
  • Institutional criticism: Advocacy groups have challenged the European Broadcasting Union for its decision to permit continued Israeli participation, citing perceived disparities in policy enforcement compared to other geopolitical exclusions.
  • Contested claims: International entities remain divided on the characterization of the situation in Gaza, with official investigations alleging genocide while the Israeli government maintains a vehement denial of these accusations.

The three countries, along with the Netherlands and Iceland, pulled out of this year's event in Vienna, which kicks off on Tuesday and culminates in Saturday's grand final.

Controversy has mounted over the conduct of Israel's war in the Gaza Strip.

Suspicions have been raised that the televoting system was being manipulated to boost Israel at Eurovision 2025 in Basel, Switzerland. Some broadcasters also raised concerns about media freedom, with Israel preventing their journalists from accessing Gaza.

"Instead of the Eurovision circus, the national television programme will be coloured by the thematic programme series 'Voices of Palestine'," Slovenian broadcaster RTV said.

During Thursday's second semi-final, Ireland's RTE will be showing "The End of the World with Beanz", featuring 1993 Eurovision winner Niamh Kavanagh in Norway experiencing life as a reindeer herder.

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And during the final, it will screen a Eurovision-themed episode of the popular 1990s Irish-made sitcom "Father Ted".

Spain's RTVE will run its own musical special, "The House of Music".

Public service broadcasters in the Netherlands and Iceland will screen the competition, despite both pulling out.

This year is the 70th anniversary of the Eurovision Song Contest, and the Austrian capital is pulling out all the stops to host the world's biggest live televised music event.

Only 35 countries will take part in the show -- the fewest since entry was expanded in 2004 -- following the five withdrawals.

First held in 1956, Eurovision is run by the European Broadcasting Union, the world's biggest alliance of public-service media.

Amnesty International said that the EBU's failure to suspend Israel from Eurovision, as it did with Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, was "an act of cowardice and an illustration of blatant double standards".

Israel's participation "offers the country a platform to try to deflect attention from and normalise its ongoing genocide in the occupied Gaza Strip", Amnesty's secretary general Agnes Callamard said in a statement.

"Songs and sequins must not be allowed to drown out or distract from Israel's atrocities or Palestinian suffering."

A UN-backed probe in September determined that "genocide is occurring in Gaza" - something Israel vehemently denies.

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bogorad
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What to know about the teachers' strike in Spain's Valencia region // Monday marked the first day of an indefinite walkout among teachers in the eastern Spanish region, and there's more protests to come this week. Here's what parents in Valencia, Alicante and Castellón need to know about the teachers' strikes.

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  • Scope of unrest: Approximately 78,000 education professionals across various school levels in the Valencian region have been called to participate in a strike.
  • Dispute origins: Protracted negotiations between labour unions and the government regarding the public education system have failed to produce an agreement.
  • Contested participation: Discrepancies exist between union reports, which estimate 80 to 90 percent turnout, and government figures, which report participation at 50.3 percent.
  • Operational impact: Educational institutions have experienced significantly reduced attendance, though some students continue to attend for critical academic activities like examinations.
  • Policy demands: Educators are seeking salary adjustments, reduced classroom sizes, lowered administrative burdens, specific linguistic mandates, and school infrastructure improvements.
  • Resource allocation: Unions maintain that current staffing levels for specialized support services for students with additional needs are insufficient and require expansion.
  • Future protests: A series of organized sit-ins and large-scale demonstrations are scheduled throughout the region to continue the pressure for concessions.
  • Government response: Regional officials report an openness to further negotiations and express a desire to resume formal meetings with union representatives ahead of the proposed June schedule.

A total of 78,000 teachers working in preschool, primary, secondary, high school, and vocational training have been called to strike in the region, protesting the situation in the public education system. 

This comes months of futile negotiations between the government and the workers’ unions.

According to unions, the number of teachers and other educators who participated in the first strike day was between 80 to 90 percent, while the Regional Ministry of Education put the figure at slightly over half (50.3 percent).

Teachers gathered to demonstrate in Valencia, Alicante, Elche, and Castellón with 20,000 attendees in the regional capital, according to data from the local government.

In Alicante, national police estimated some 12,000 people participated, while in Castellón just over 5,000 people joined the protest, and in Elche the number was around 2,800.

Some students turned up to class if they had particularly important days such as exams, but otherwise schools remained mostly empty.

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Teachers are demanding salary increases, reduced student-teacher ratios, less bureaucracy, respect for the Valencian language in education, and a plan for air conditioning in schools. 

Educational workers in the region currently have between 23 and 25 students, including children with special needs.

“The ideal ratio would be 18 students per class, or the possibility of co-teaching, that is, having two teachers in the classroom,” the unions state.

They are also demanding more specialists in therapeutic pedagogy, speech and language therapy, and educational guidance, since students with special needs “should receive five hours of support per week, but often only get one to three, and even then, it has to be shared". 

Minimum services directed by local government are being appealed at the High Court of Justice of Valencia because they are “excessive.”

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On Tuesday May 12th, sit-ins are planned at various education centres, while on Wednesday, May 13th, demonstrations are scheduled for noon outside the Palau de la Generalitat and the regional government delegations, such as the Casa de las Brujas in Alicante and the Casa de los Caracoles in Castellón.

On Thursday May 14th, protests will concentrate outside the Ministry of Education and the provincial Territorial Directorates. Then on Friday, May 15th, a "large unitary demonstration" is planned in Valencia city starting from Plaza de San Agustín at noon.

The regional Minister of Education, Carmen Ortí, told regional television channel À Punt that she is maintaining open lines of communication with the unions and that the government's intention is to reach agreements.

According to her, the next meeting with the unions was scheduled for June 9th but she wants to reconvene "as soon as possible".

If the strike continues, it could affect just over half a million students.

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bogorad
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Elon Musk’s Grok Is Losing Ground in AI Race - WSJ

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Resource Redistribution: spacex offloaded its entire colossus data center computing capacity to anthropics competitor instead of utilizing it for its own struggling platform.
  • Stagnant Growth: grok download metrics plummeted from over 20 million in january to roughly 8.3 million by april.
  • Market Irrelevance: consumer interest remains statistically flat with a negligible paid subscriber base compared to dominant industry leaders.
  • Corporate Failure: enterprise adoption levels remain abysmal at only 7 percent interest while competitors see rapid growth in professional settings.
  • Strategic Retreat: musk has openly characterized his own venture as a minor player in an aggressive market he previously sought to dominate.
  • Content desperation: development resources were diverted toward creating sexually suggestive chatbot features in a failed attempt to manufacture artificial user engagement.
  • Financial Pragmatism: the deal with anthropic represents an opportunistic pivot to generate revenue ahead of a planned spacex ipo.
  • Ideological Hypocrisy: despite labeling the competitor as evil in previous statements musk is now happy to collect rent from them to fuel his own financial interests.

BPC > Only use to renew if text is incomplete or updated: | archive.fo
BPC > Full article text fetched from (no need to report issue for external site): | archive.today | archive.md
Elon Musk walks into a federal courthouse.Elon Musk released his artificial-intelligence model, Grok, in late 2023. Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters

  • SpaceX, Grok’s parent company, signed a deal in early May to rent all computing capacity at a main data center to Anthropic.
  • Grok’s growth has flattened, with downloads falling to 8.3 million in April from over 20 million in January, according to AppMagic.
  • Grok lags behind competitors in enterprise adoption, with 7% of companies using and planning to use it compared with 48% for Claude, per ETR.
This summary was generated with AI and reviewed by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.
  • SpaceX, Grok’s parent company, signed a deal in early May to rent all computing capacity at a main data center to Anthropic.
    View more
Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence model, Grok, lags far behind its fast-growing competitors—and an agreement by parent company SpaceX to rent massive computing power to Anthropic raises questions about whether it can still catch up.
The deal, signed in early May, will give the maker of the Claude AI model and chatbot all the computing capacity at one of Musk’s main data centers. Anthropic and rival OpenAI have been racing to acquire all the computing capacity they can as booming demand challenges their ability to serve their models. 
Since its launch two years ago, Grok has reached millions of users through its integration with Musk’s social network, X, and controversial features such as a sexualized AI companion. But new data shows its growth appears to have flattened. 
Downloads of Grok fell to about 8.3 million in April, from a high of more than 20 million in January, according to analysis firm AppMagic.
In a survey of more than 260,000 U.S. consumers and workers who use AI, the percent of respondents who said they paid for Grok remained mostly flat at 0.174% in the second quarter of 2026 versus 0.173% a year ago, according to research firm Recon Analytics. More than 6% of respondents said they paid for ChatGPT.
Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Grok App Downloads (in millions)Source: AppMagic
Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Sep 2025Jan 2026Apr 202602.55.07.510.012.515.017.520.022.5
“OpenAI is Coke, Anthropic is Pepsi and Grok is RC Cola,” said Ben Pouladian, an engineer and tech investor based in Los Angeles. “I never really saw people drinking it.”
Pouladian has adopted some of Musk’s tech in his life. He drives a Tesla and is active on X. When Grok came out in late 2023, he downloaded it and played around, but never became a power user. He said he prefers Anthropic’s Claude, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and sometimes Google’s Gemini.
Musk and Grok’s parent company, SpaceX, didn’t respond to requests for comment. In public statements, Musk has characterized it as less than competitive in the AI race.
In court for his suit against OpenAI in late April, Musk played down the size and significance of xAI, the AI company he recently merged into SpaceX. He described it as “pretty small,” “very small” and “the smallest of the AI companies.”
OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT in 2022 marked the introduction to AI for many consumers. By mid-2025, more than three-quarters of respondents in the Recon Analytics survey had heard of ChatGPT.
Musk released Grok in late 2023. He set out to make it the most popular AI in the world and said it would be “maximally truth-seeking” and less “woke” than its competitors.
Musk spent much of the summer of 2025 holed up at his AI startup, trying to catch up in the AI arms race. He personally oversaw the design of a racy chatbot. Grok also offered settings that let users create suggestive and sexualized content that former employees said spurred engagement.
The January peak in Grok downloads came after an update permitted users to virtually undress people in photos; widespread use of the feature on images of minors drew scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers, and the company limited access to it.
The hottest front for competition among the major labs is coding assistants, with corporate adoption of the tools driving rapid revenue growth.
Grok remains behind there as well. It is barely growing within enterprise organizations, according to Erik Bradley, chief strategist and research director at market research firm Enterprise Technology Research. Meanwhile, Bradley said, use of Claude and Gemini is soaring.
In a survey of about 500 people, ETR found 48% of respondents in March said their company was currently using and planned to continue to use Claude, up from 21% the prior year. Forty percent of respondents in March said their company was using and planned to continue to use Gemini, up from 27% a year earlier. Seven percent of respondents in March said their company was using and planned to use Grok, up from 4%.
Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Enterprise AI AdoptionPercentage of respondents currently using and planning to continue to use an AI modelSource: Enterprise Technology Research
Created with Highcharts 9.0.1March 2025September 2025March 2026OpenAIAnthropicGoogleGrok010203040506070
Musk faces pressure to show investors his companies are making money ahead of SpaceX’s expected initial public offering this year. Analysts said the deal with Anthropic for the computing capacity at the Colossus 1 data center near Memphis, Tenn., could bring Musk a few billion dollars a year.
Arnal Dayaratna, vice president of software development at research firm IDC, said the deal shows how Musk is beginning to turn Colossus into an external computing platform for major AI companies rather than only using the facility for internal model development.
Guillermo Rauch, chief executive of Vercel, a hosting company for AI agents, cautions against counting Musk out of the AI race. He said he was optimistic Musk’s recent reorganization of his AI unit will strengthen its ability to compete.
“Once Elon focuses, which is what is happening right now, we see him perform very very well,” Rauch said.
Rauch said his customers’ behavior shows that developers often move quickly between models. He said engineers might flock to Grok if the company delivers better performance in one of its coming models.
Musk’s willingness to enter a deal with Anthropic marks a shift in his posture toward that company. In February, Musk described the company’s AI as “misanthropic and evil” in a post on X.
Tech investor Pouladian said Musk’s newfound embrace of Anthropic could stem from Anthropic’s antagonism toward OpenAI, which Musk is fighting in court. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend, and it’s also my compute partner,” he said.
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Do School Phone Bans Work? - by Robert VerBruggen

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Screen Exposure Statistics: children possess smartphones at increasing rates while simultaneously lacking real world mobility according to survey data.
  • Academic Efficacy Data: rigorous research into school phone bans indicates minimal impact on actual student grades or academic performance.
  • Behavioral Modification Outcomes: reported disciplinary issues experience a temporary increase as students struggle to adapt to the imposition of restrictive new school rules.
  • Constraint Mechanism Utility: specialized magnetic pouches function as a pseudo-remedy to enforce compliance without the logistical challenges of banning devices entirely.
  • Subjective Teacher Observations: faculty reports of reduced in-class device usage remain self-reported and reflect unverified estimates rather than objective measurements.
  • Wellbeing Metric Shifts: self reported student wellbeing indices demonstrate minor fluctuations that fail to provide conclusive evidence of long term benefit.
  • Policy Implementation Failures: the investigation confirms that no technological solution serves as a comprehensive correction for the structural deficiencies in contemporary education.
  • Institutional Administrative Control: the preference for monitoring individual device usage reflects a desire for increased bureaucratic surveillance over student conduct within institutional settings.

Courtesy Yi-Chin Lee/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images

When I started this column late last year, one of the first studies I dug into was an analysis of a school phone ban in Florida. Some topics never go away for long. The most-discussed research this week again focused on screen time, kids, and related school policies.

First, our friends over at the Institute for Family Studies put out striking new survey results. The gist is that today’s kids have a lot of access to screens, but relatively little freedom in the real world. One indicator: by the age of 11, over 60 percent of kids have a smartphone, but around half still can’t leave the family’s property unaccompanied.

Meanwhile, a new working paper released through the National Bureau of Economic Research may provide the most rigorous assessment of school cell-phone policies yet—and it doubles as a bit of a Rorschach test, with results that lend themselves to varying interpretations.

As a certified screen-time hater (just ask my kids), I thought two findings in particular stood out. First, when schools aggressively lock down kids’ cell phones, teachers report seeing far less personal use of those devices during class—which in my view justifies such a policy all by itself, as kids obviously should not be messing around with their phones in class. And two, students’ overall wellbeing dips a little as they get used to the policy and then actually improves.

On the other hand, the researchers find only minimal effects on academic performance and student behavior—results some find a bit underwhelming.

Let’s back up and dig into the methods here.

Basically, a company called Yondr makes pouches that schools can use to contain their cell phone problems. The pouches lock magnetically, though they don’t block signals. Students can keep their (hopefully silenced) phones with them in these pouches without being able to use them, and they can unlock the pouches at dedicated stations in emergencies or when they go home. This stops short of a full-on ban while avoiding some of the enforcement problems inherent in, for example, a “no show” policy, where students carry their phones on them but officially are not allowed to take them out.

The authors have data on which schools throughout the country have purchased this product. On top of that, they have a wide variety of testing and administrative data about the schools, and they ran surveys of both teachers and students to track other policy changes and outcomes. This allows them to compare trends in schools that adopted these pouches with what happened at other, similar schools.

Student cell-phone distraction clearly fell. In their teacher survey, educators at Yondr schools estimated that in-class cell phone use for personal reasons fell from 61 percent of students to 13 percent following the change, though these are subjective guesses (and schools that made other policy changes also saw declines, if smaller ones). Phone “pings” recorded in schools fell too, by around 30 percent, but this includes the phones of teachers and staff, and phones can generate pings even from inside the pouches, making that a lower bound for the reduction in student cell-phone use.

Other outcomes, though, have more mixed results. As mentioned above, student wellbeing—measured through an index of self-reported positive and negative feelings—dips at first but ultimately rises, suggesting some admittedly modest long-term benefits to the policy. The authors peg the boost at 0.16 standard deviations in the second year after adoption, which implies the median kid, at the 50th percentile of wellbeing, would improve to what used to be the 56th percentile.

Meanwhile, the test-score results are small and inconsistent, with a possible increase for high school scores (especially math) and a possible decrease in middle school. Disciplinary incidents see a short-term increase, presumably reflecting an adjustment to the new rules, but this fades out. The authors report “little evidence of effects on school attendance, self-reported classroom attention, or perceived online bullying.”

A miracle cure for everything that ails American education? No. But a worthy policy change? Looks like it to me.

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From the Manhattan Institute

Other Work of Note

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bogorad
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Sensible Tories need to start preparing for a coalition

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Conservative Delusion: party officials maintain a false narrative of revival despite catastrophic electoral losses across local councils in england, wales, and scotland.
  • Failed Milestones: the retention of a few affluent seats is being absurdly presented as a successful recovery following a performance that leaves the party in a weak position.
  • Reform Expansion: with 1,500 council seats secured, the reform party is demonstrating clear momentum toward national governance rather than acting as a mere nuisance.
  • Opposition Incompetence: although the government is suffering from severe mid-term crises, the conservatives fail to capitalize on the public mood due to their own stagnant and uninspiring standing.
  • Fatal Complacency: the belief that reform will inevitably collapse due to self-inflicted incompetence is a high-risk strategy that fails to account for structural shifts in voting bases.
  • Coalition Necessity: survival for the conservative party rests on the desperate hope of forging informal, localized electoral pacts with farage to prevent complete political obsolescence.
  • Ideological Tailoring: specific politicians are being identified as viable lures for reform, focusing on either those with right-wing pedigrees or those occupying safe, cosmopolitan strongholds where reform remains weak.
  • Imminent Collapse: the current seventeen percent polling floor is illusory and vulnerable to further erosion if voters abandon the party to prevent a left-wing electoral victory.

James Frayne James Frayne

James Frayne is a political strategist and a specialist in political opinion research. See more He has held senior roles in government, campaigns and in the corporate world. He founded the research agency Public First in 2016 and was previously director of communications at the Department for Education and director of strategy at the Policy Exchange think tank. 

Published 10 May 2026 8:00am BST

This bizarre narrative persists in Tory world: “Kemi Badenoch is leading a revival of the party”. This inexplicably developed when the party’s national opinion poll ratings remained sub-20 points. It persists even after these elections, where they lost more than 500 council seats in England, saw their Welsh Senedd seats drop by 22 to 7, and their Scottish Parliament seats drop by 19 to 12.

Tories push this message after losing control of councils in their heartlands of Essex and Suffolk, amongst half a dozen council losses. They push it even as they failed to re-take Wandsworth. All on the basis of what? The fact they regained control of their flagship Westminster council and held middle-class councils in the prosperous South? This is a strange measure of success.

Reform, meanwhile, secured nearly 1,500 council seats across England – many of them at the direct expense of the Conservative Party. Reform’s performance wasn’t that of an irritating challenger party like Ukip used to be, but of a party heading for Downing Street.

We’re nearly two years into this Parliament and the Labour Party is suffering from something the phrase “mid-term blues” doesn’t vaguely do justice to. They suffered huge losses across the country and many Labour activists are calling for the Prime Minister’s resignation.

This ought to be the Tories’ moment. In this climate, an opposition party with serious ambition should be taking vast numbers of local election seats off a flailing Government. But the Conservatives’ performance suggested mid-term blues too. If this isn’t enough to put the party into deep contemplation about their future, it’s hard to know what will.

There remains this assumption that Reform will blow themselves up in the end through a mixture of extremism and incompetence. At that point, the belief goes, voters will come flocking back to the Tories. Such moments of incompetence and extremism from Reform are guaranteed, but it stretches credibility to imagine these will be enough to wipe the party out and transfer all its voters to the Tories.

While it was reasonable but wrong for Conservative politicians and strategists to remain blasé about Reform’s opinion poll ratings, it’s completely baffling how they remain equally relaxed about Reform’s actual election results. These confirmed what national opinion polls have shown, with Reform’s national vote share around 25 per cent and the Tories’ around 17 per cent. But they showed what such national leads can mean on the ground: with Reform devastating the Tories right across the country.

Farage
Not even a few moments of incompetence by Reform will send its voters back to the Tories Credit: Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images

What should the Conservatives do?

The party’s only hope is that vulnerable MPs and ambitious candidates take into their own hands the formation of a coalition with Reform – on the basis that Farage will surely realise a Reform majority is unlikely and a national government with willing Tories is the best bet to take power.

I have previously written about this in these pages, but the contours of such an arrangement have become clearer after these results, particularly in England. The formation of such a coalition must happen quietly and informally; Farage can never publicly agree a deal as his activists hate the Tories so much. Tory politicians and candidates must do their own deals.

Only two types of Tories will be interesting to Reform.

The first are Reform-minded politicians with the right ideological heritage and experience of government or Parliament. Nick Timothy naturally springs to mind – the former Home Office adviser who was briefly Theresa May’s chief of staff at No. 10, and the party’s star performer of the last year. Timothy would drastically strengthen a national government Cabinet, led by Reform.

Another is Katie Lam, also a former Home Office and Downing Street adviser, who has been another top performer in the last year. Yet another, cut from entirely different cloth but with deep experience in Parliament, is Bernard Jenkin. Of course, there are others.

Katie Lam
MP Katie Lam is the type of Conservative that would be interesting to Reform in the event of a coalition Credit: Anthony Devlin/Bloomberg

These politicians represent seats in Suffolk, Kent and Essex respectively, and are surely vulnerable in a Reform surge. Suffolk and Essex went Reform at these local elections, of course. But each of them could do business with Reform and each of them would be critical in a Reform-Tory coalition.

The second type of Tories are those who stand in places where Reform are weak. While Reform can get votes anywhere, there are still places they struggle. As these local elections confirmed, above all, that includes richer, cosmopolitan inner-London, its prosperous outer boroughs, and the constellation of towns that form London’s broad commuter belt.

The Tories are strong in some of these places: they did, after all, hold Westminster council, as well as Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon and Harrow. But there are other places where the Tories are strong only in relative terms, because Reform are weak. Most obviously, this includes wealthy Surrey, which the Lib Dems secured in large part at these local elections.

In short, Reform is weak in this Remainer-Land: places stuffed full of middle-class professionals (often younger) from the public and private sectors, who tend to be more positive towards immigration and a more “modern” take on the culture wars.

Reform is never going to be competitive here. If Tory candidates can persuade Reform that they share the same overall aims – and a desire to keep out the Left – then Farage might do a series of deals. Many Tories, perhaps the majority, will prefer to sit and wait and see what happens in the next year before embarking on any such high-stakes outreach to Reform. This of course makes some sort of sense.

But too many Tories think their party’s floor in the national opinion polls is still enough to form the basis of a real fightback. They think that being on, say, 17 per cent in the polls isn’t so far away from the low-20s, which in turn isn’t so far from the high-20s. They ultimately think politics will return to normal if Reform is dragged into serious scandal.

Maybe. But 17 per cent is no floor. If the Greens surge further, and if a Left-wing Labour politician assumes the leadership and becomes prime minister, then those pledging a Tory vote might think a Left-wing coalition is a real possibility. If they do, they’ll junk the Tories and vote for whoever looks most likely to keep the Left out. In this scenario, the Tories will go through the floor pre-election, all of a sudden.

The most intelligent Tories ought to be booking the private room at Nigel Farage’s favourite Boisdale restaurant and saving up to drop a few hundred quid on a bottle of claret. They have some pleading to do.

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bogorad
1 day ago
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Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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