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How Ralph Wiggum went from 'The Simpsons' to the biggest name in AI right now | VentureBeat

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  • Dual Identity: The Ralph Wiggum plugin for Claude Code is simultaneously described as a meme and an AGI-adjacent tool that automates economically valuable work via relentless iteration.
  • Origin: Geoffrey Huntley, frustrated by human-in-the-loop bottlenecks, created a humble Bash loop on his Australian goat farm to force Claude to confront its own failures until success.
  • Philosophy: The methodology hinges on context engineering, piping raw outputs—including errors—back into Claude so the model repeatedly faces its mistakes and seeks a correct solution.
  • Sanitization Shift: Anthropic’s official plugin, formalized by Boris Cherny, reframes the hack with the mantra “Failures Are Data,” adding structured feedback and safety mechanisms.
  • Stop Hook: Claude receives a completion promise and the hook blocks exits lacking it, feeding failures back into the session to create self-referential loops that demand passing tests or linters.
  • Night Shift Gains: Users report massive efficiency wins—from $297 API contracts to overnight multi-repo generation and autonomous long maintenance runs—by letting Ralph run while they sleep.
  • Caveats: Infinite loops can burn valid budgets, so experts recommend `--max-iterations` escape hatches, sandboxed environments, and cautious use of `--dangerously-skip-permissions`.
  • Availability: Claude Code users can invoke the official plugin via `/plugin ralph` while community forks and Huntley’s original scripts remain on GitHub.

In the fast-moving world of AI development, it is rare for a tool to be described as both "a meme" and AGI, artificial generalized intelligence, the "holy grail" of a model or system that can reliably outperform humans on economically valuable work.

Yet, that is exactly where the Ralph Wiggum plugin for Claude Code now sits.

Named after the infamously high-pitched, hapless yet persistent character on The Simpsons, this newish tool (released in summer 2025) — and the philosophy behind it — has set the developer community on X (formerly Twitter) into a tizzy of excitement over the last few weeks.

For power users of Anthropic’s hit agentic, quasi-autonomous coding platform Claude Code, Wiggum represents a shift from "chatting" with AI to managing autonomous "night shifts."

It is a crude but effective step toward agentic coding, transforming the AI from a pair programmer into a relentless worker that doesn’t stop until the job is done.

Origin Story: A Tale of Two Ralphs

To understand the "Ralph" tool is to understand a new approach toward improving autonomous AI coding performance — one that relies on brute force, failure, and repetition as much as it does on raw intelligence and reasoning.

Because Ralph Wiggum is not merely a Simpsons character anymore; it is a methodology born on a goat farm and refined in a San Francisco research lab, a divergence best documented in the conversations between its creator and the broader developer community.

The story begins in roughly May 2025 with Geoffrey Huntley, a longtime open source software developer who pivoted to raising goats in rural Australia.

Huntley was frustrated by a fundamental limitation in the agentic coding workflow: the "human-in-the-loop" bottleneck.

He realized that while models were capable, they were hamstrung by the user’s need to manually review and re-prompt every error.

Huntley’s solution was elegantly brutish. He wrote a 5-line Bash script that he jokingly named after Ralph Wiggum, the dim-witted but relentlessly optimistic and undeterred character from The Simpsons.

As Huntley explained in his initial release blog post "Ralph Wiggum as a 'software engineer,'" the idea relied on Context Engineering.

By piping the model’s entire output—failures, stack traces, and hallucinations—back into its own input stream for the next iteration, Huntley created a "contextual pressure cooker."

This philosophy was further dissected in a recent conversation with Dexter Horthy, co-founder and CEO of the enterprise AI engineering firm HumanLayer, posted on YouTube.

Horthy and Huntley argue that the power of the original Ralph wasn't just in the looping, but in its "naive persistence" — the unsanitized feedback, in which the LLM isn't protected from its own mess; it is forced to confront it.

It embodies the philosophy that if you press the model hard enough against its own failures without a safety net, it will eventually "dream" a correct solution just to escape the loop.

By late 2025, Boris Cherny, Anthropic's Head of Claude Code* formalized the hack into the official ralph-wiggum plugin.

However, as noted by critics in the Horthy/Huntley discussion, the official release marked a shift in philosophy—a "sterilization" of the original chaotic concept.

While Huntley’s script was about brute force, the official Anthropic plugin was designed around the principle that "Failures Are Data."

In the official documentation, the distinction is clear. The Anthropic implementation utilizes a specialized "Stop Hook"—a mechanism that intercepts the AI's attempt to exit the CLI.

  1. Intercept the Exit: When Claude thinks it is done, the plugin pauses execution.

  2. Verify Promise: It checks for a specific "Completion Promise" (e.g., "All tests passed").

  3. Feedback Injection: If the promise isn't met, the failure is formatted as a structured data object.

The "Tale of Two Ralphs" offers a critical choice for modern power users:

  • The "Huntley Ralph" (Bash Script/Community Forks): Best for chaotic, creative exploration where you want the AI to solve problems through sheer, unbridled persistence.

  • The "Official Ralph" (Anthropic Plugin): The standard for enterprise workflows, strictly bound by token limits and safety hooks, designed to fix broken builds reliably without the risk of an infinite hallucination loop.

In short: Huntley proved the loop was possible; Anthropic proved it could be safe.

What It Offers: The Night Shift for Coders

The documentation is clear on where Ralph shines: new projects and tasks with automatic verification (like tests or linters).

But for the "boring stuff," the efficiency gains are becoming the stuff of legend. According to the official plugin documentation on GitHub, the technique has already logged some eye-watering wins.

In one case, a developer reportedly completed a $50,000 contract for just $297 in API costs—essentially arbitraging the difference between an expensive human lawyer/coder and a relentless AI loop.

The repository also highlights a Y Combinator hackathon stress test where the tool "successfully generated 6 repositories overnight," effectively allowing a single developer to output a small team's worth of boilerplate while asleep.

Meanwhile, on X, community members like ynkzlk have shared screenshots of Ralph handling the kind of maintenance work engineers dread, such as a 14-hour autonomous session that upgraded a stale codebase from React v16 to v19 entirely without human input.

To make this work safely, power users rely on a specific architecture. Matt Pocock, a prominent developer and educator who posted a recent YouTube video overview of why Ralph Wiggum is so powerful.

As he states: "One of the dreams of coding agents is that you can wake up in the morning to working code, that your coding agent has worked through your backlog and has just spit out a whole bunch of code for you to review and it works."

In Pocock's view, Wiggum (the plugin) is about as close as you can come to this dream. It's "a vast improvement over any other AI coding orchestration setup I've ever tried and allows you to actually ship working stuff with longrunning coding agents," he states.

He advises using strong feedback loops like TypeScript and unit tests.

If the code compiles and passes tests, the AI emits the completion promise; if not, the Stop Hook forces it to try again.

The Core Innovation: The Stop Hook

At its heart, the Ralph Wiggum technique is deceptively simple. As Huntley put it: "Ralph is a Bash loop."

However, the official plugin implements this in a clever, technically distinct way. Instead of just running a script on the outside, the plugin installs a "Stop Hook" inside your Claude session.

  1. You give Claude a task and a "completion promise" (e.g., <promise>COMPLETE</promise>).

  2. Claude works on the task and tries to exit when it thinks it's done.

  3. The hook blocks the exit if the promise isn't found, feeding the same prompt back into the system.

  4. This forces a "self-referential feedback loop" where Claude sees its previous work, reads the error logs or git history, and tries again.

Pocock describes this as a shift from "Waterfall" planning to true "Agile" for AI. Instead of forcing the AI to follow a brittle, multi-step plan, Ralph allows the agent to simply "grab a ticket off the board," finish it, and look for the next one.

Community Reactions: 'The Closest Thing to AGI'

The reception among the AI builder and developer community on social media has been effusive.

Dennison Bertram, CEO and founder of custom cryptocurrency and blockchain token creation platform Tally, posted on X on December 15:

"No joke, this might be the closest thing I've seen to AGI: This prompt is an absolute beast with Claude."

Arvid Kahl, founder and CEO of automated podcast business intelligence extraction and brand detection tool Podscan, persuasively covered the benefits of Ralph's persistent approach in his own X post yesterday:

And as Chicago entrepreneur Hunter Hammonds put it:

Opus 4.5 + Ralph Wiggum with XcodeBuild and playwright is going to mint millionaires. Mark my words. You’re not ready

In a meta-twist characteristic of the 2025 AI scene, the "Ralph" phenomenon didn't just generate code—it generated a market.

And earlier this week, someone — not Huntley, he says — launched a new $RALPH cryptocurrency token on the Solana blockchain to capitalize on the hype surrounding the plugin.

The Catch: Costs and Safety

The excitement comes with significant caveats. Software firm Better Stack warned users on X about the economic reality of infinite loops:

"The Ralph Wiggum plugin runs Claude Code in autonomous loops... But will those nonstop API calls break your token budget?"

Because the loop runs until success, the documentation advises using "Escape Hatches."

Users should always set a --max-iterations flag (e.g., 20 or 50) to prevent the AI from burning through cash on an impossible task.There is also a security dimension.

To work effectively, Ralph often requires the --dangerously-skip-permissions flag, granting the AI full control over the terminal.

Security experts strictly advise running Ralph sessions in sandboxed environments (like disposable cloud VMs) to prevent the AI from accidentally deleting local files.

Availability

The Ralph Wiggum technique is available now for Claude Code users:

  • Official Plugin: Accessible inside Claude Code via /plugin ralph.

  • Original Method: The "OG" bash scripts and community forks are available on GitHub.

As 2026 begins, Ralph Wiggum has evolved from a Simpsons joke into a defining archetype for software development: Iteration > Perfection.

*Correction: This article mistakenly characterized Boris Cherney's title. The article has since been updated and corrected, and we regret the error.

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Women display more fluidity in sexual attractions and fantasies than men

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  • Data source: Analysis pooled responses from 56,892 individuals across three large online datasets to examine sexual attraction patterns.
  • Methodology: Combined self-reported attraction ratings, fantasy frequency, implicit association tests, and questionnaire-based IATs for a multilayered approach.
  • Gender specificity: Men reported high attraction to preferred gender and low attraction to non-preferred gender, creating a wide specificity gap.
  • Female profile: Women showed somewhat lower attraction to their preferred gender but higher attraction to their non-preferred gender, indicating broader potential attractions.
  • Straight group nuance: Straight women still preferred men but with less exclusivity; straight men displayed uniquely strong gender specificity.
  • Sexual orientation variation: Gay and lesbian participants often exhibited smaller, absent, or reversed specificity gaps, with lesbians sometimes matching gay men.
  • Social and cultural factors: Results challenge sex-drive explanations, suggesting societal norms and sexual objectification influence specificity, especially toward women.
  • Orientation granularity: “Mostly” straight or gay identities, more common among women, drove much of the flexibility, while men favored “exclusive” categories.

A new analysis of data from over 50,000 individuals indicates that men exhibit a more exclusive pattern of sexual attraction than women do. The research shows that while men strongly prefer one gender over the other, women tend to display a wider range of potential attractions. These results appear in The Journal of Sex Research.

For decades, researchers have attempted to map the differences in how men and women experience sexual desire. Older investigations often relied on measuring physical signs of arousal in a laboratory setting. Those experiments frequently suggested that men are “gender-specific.” This means men typically show physical arousal only when viewing the gender they prefer.

In contrast, those same historical studies often found that straight women displayed physical arousal when viewing images of both men and women. This led to a prevailing theory that female sexuality is inherently less specific than male sexuality. However, it remained unclear if this pattern applied to psychological feelings of attraction or fantasies.

Sapir Keinan-Bar, Yoav Bar-Anan, and Daphna Joel conducted the current investigation to answer this question. They are researchers affiliated with the School of Psychological Sciences and the Sagol School of Neuroscience at Tel-Aviv University. They sought to determine if the gender gap in specificity exists when measuring self-reported feelings and subconscious associations. They also aimed to see how these patterns manifest across different sexual orientations.

The team aggregated data from three separate large-scale online datasets. The total pool of participants included 56,892 individuals. The datasets contained information from volunteers who had visited research websites or utilized paid survey platforms.

The researchers analyzed responses to direct questions regarding sexual identity. Participants rated their level of attraction to men and women on numerical scales. They also reported the frequency of their erotic fantasies involving men or women. This allowed the authors to compare conscious reports of desire.

In addition to direct questions, the study utilized indirect measures of attraction. One primary tool used was the Implicit Association Test (IAT). This computerized task measures the strength of mental links between concepts.

During an IAT, a participant might sort words or images into categories like “Men” or “Women” and “I am sexually attracted” or “I am not sexually attracted.” The speed at which a participant sorts these items reveals their automatic associations. A faster response time suggests a stronger underlying mental connection.

The researchers also used a variation called the Questionnaire-Based Implicit Association Test (qIAT). This version uses statements rather than single words or images. It assesses attraction to men and women separately rather than comparing them directly.

The analysis of this massive dataset revealed a consistent pattern. Men generally exhibited greater gender-specificity than women. This trend appeared across self-reported attraction, fantasy frequency, and the indirect association measures.

The data provided a detailed look at why this gap exists. Men reported very high levels of attraction toward their preferred gender. At the same time, they reported very low levels of attraction toward their non-preferred gender. This created a large statistical gap between their likes and dislikes.

Women showed a different profile. They reported slightly lower levels of attraction to their preferred gender compared to men. More importantly, they reported higher levels of attraction to their non-preferred gender than men did. This finding suggests that women are psychologically more open to their non-preferred gender.

The study clarified the nature of attraction among heterosexual women. Contrary to some interpretations of older physiological studies, straight women were not completely non-specific. They clearly preferred men over women in both self-reports and indirect measures.

However, the intensity of this preference was not as exclusive as the preference straight men held for women. Straight women demonstrated a distinct preference, but the separation was less extreme. The researchers noted that this pattern was robust across the different samples.

The study also examined individuals who identified as gay or lesbian. The researchers found that the gender gap in specificity was different in these groups. The large difference seen between straight men and women was often smaller, absent, or reversed among gay and lesbian participants.

For example, lesbian women showed levels of specificity that were sometimes similar to, or even higher than, gay men. This suggests that the high degree of exclusivity observed in straight men might be a unique characteristic of that specific group. It may not be a universal trait of male sexuality.

The analysis of sexual fantasies reinforced the findings regarding attraction. Men reported fantasies almost exclusively about their preferred gender. Women reported fantasies primarily about their preferred gender, but with more frequent exceptions than men.

The authors evaluated several theoretical explanations for these results. One common theory posits that men simply have a higher sex drive than women. The data presented a challenge to this idea.

If men simply had a higher sex drive, they should report higher attraction to everyone. Instead, women reported higher attraction to their non-preferred gender than men did. This indicates that the difference is not just about the total amount of sexual desire.

Another theory considers the impact of social norms. Society often imposes strict expectations on heterosexual masculinity. Men face social penalties for showing interest in other men.

This social pressure might encourage men to report extreme attraction to women and deny any attraction to men. This would create the highly specific pattern observed in the data. Women generally face less social stigma for expressing flexibility in their attractions.

The authors also discussed the theory of sexual objectification. Western culture frequently portrays women as sexual objects. This cultural conditioning might cause individuals of all genders to develop some degree of attraction toward women.

The results offered some support for this objectification hypothesis. Across the board, attraction to the non-preferred gender was higher when that gender was female. For instance, straight women reported more attraction to women than straight men reported to men.

The researchers pointed out the benefits of using detailed categories for sexual orientation. The study allowed participants to identify as “mostly straight” or “mostly gay” rather than just using three rigid categories. This nuance revealed that people in the “mostly” categories drove much of the flexibility seen in the data.

Women were more likely than men to identify with these “mostly” categories. Men were more likely to identify as “exclusively” straight or gay. This difference in self-identification aligns with the finding that men are more gender-specific in their attractions.

There are limitations to this research. The data came from online samples, which may not perfectly represent the general population. The participants were primarily English speakers and likely skewed younger and more liberal.

The measures relied on honesty in self-reporting and the assumption that reaction times reflect attraction. These are proxies for real-world experience. The study did not measure physiological arousal, so it cannot be directly compared to the older laboratory studies on that metric.

Future research could explore these patterns in different cultures. Examining societies with different gender norms could help separate biological tendencies from social conditioning. It would be useful to see if the high specificity of straight men persists in cultures with different concepts of masculinity.

The study, “Gender-Specificity in Sexual Attraction and Fantasies: Evidence from Self-Report and Indirect Measures,” was authored by Sapir Keinan-Bar, Yoav Bar-Anan, and Daphna Joel.

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The Row Over South Korea’s Push for a Native AI Model: Chinese Code - WSJ

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  • Competition goal: South Korea launched a contest to develop an independent AI model using Korean technology for national self-reliance.
  • Foreign code use: Three of five finalists were found to incorporate open-source code from foreign, including Chinese, AI models, prompting scrutiny.
  • Expert perspectives: Some experts argue that excluding open-source software is impractical and wasteful, while others cite security risks and national ownership concerns.
  • Sovereign AI push: The government seeks two winners by 2027 achieving at least 95% parity with top models, offering funding, talent access, and government-procured chips.
  • Upstage controversy: Rivals alleged Upstage’s model mirrored Chinese Zhipu AI and retained copyright markers; Upstage shared logs showing scratch training but acknowledged open-source inference code usage.
  • Naver and SK Telecom scrutiny: Naver admitted to using external encoders similar to Alibaba/OpenAI, and SK Telecom faced claims of inference code resembling China’s DeepSeek, while both stress their core engines are independently developed.
  • Rules unclear: Competition guidelines didn’t ban foreign open-source use, the science ministry has issued no new rules, and it plans to cut one finalist while the minister welcomes debate.
  • Core training stance: Seoul National University’s AI Institute director affirmed that finalists trained their models from scratch without relying on foreign tools for internal numerical tuning.

By

Jiyoung Sohn

Jan. 13, 2026 11:00 pm ET

2


People at the SK Telecom pavilion, surrounded by server rack displays, at the World IT Show 2025.

The SK Telecom pavilion at an information-technology show in Seoul. Jeon Heon-Kyun/Shutterstock

SEOUL—Last June, the South Korean government launched a competition to create a new independent AI model developed with Korean technology. A homegrown tool like that was critical to ensuring Korea’s technological self-reliance in a world already dominated by U.S. and Chinese artificial intelligence.

It is proving to be easier said than done.

Of five finalist companies in the three-year competition, three have been found to use at least some open-source codes from foreign AI models, including Chinese ones.

The companies and AI experts argue it makes little sense to shun existing AI models and attempt to build everything from scratch. But others say that any use of foreign tools creates potential security risks and undercuts hopes of cultivating an AI model undeniably a nation’s own.

It isn’t realistic to require every single piece of code be written entirely in-house when pursuing AI-model development, said Gu-Yeon Wei, an electrical-engineering professor at Harvard University, who is familiar with the Korean competition but not directly involved with any of the competitors.

“To forgo open-source software,” Wei said, “you’re leaving on the table this huge amount of benefit.”

Countries worldwide are increasingly looking to reduce foreign reliance and hone their own capabilities in a technology that could profoundly affect their economic competitiveness and national security.

A chip of the Nvidia Corp. Quantum-X platform.

A chip from Nvidia’s Quantum-X platform. Bridget Bennett/Bloomberg News

South Korea, with a bevy of chip giants, software firms and political backing, represents one of the most aggressive proponents of so-called sovereign AI.

The race seeks to identify two homegrown winners by 2027 able to achieve 95% or higher parity in performance with leading AI models from the likes of OpenAI or Google. Winners get access to state funding for data and hiring talent, as well as access to government-procured chips essential for AI computing.

Controversy over one of the finalists, Upstage, erupted in recent days. Some components of its AI model bore resemblance to an open-source model from China-based Zhipu AI, according to the chief executive of Sionic AI, a local rival. In addition, Zhipu AI copyright markers were left within some of Upstage’s code, he claimed.

“It’s deeply regrettable that a model suspected to be a fine-tuned copy of a Chinese model was submitted to a project funded by taxpayers’ money,” Ko Suk-hyun, the Sionic CEO, wrote on LinkedIn. Sionic had also entered the South Korean competition, though failed to make the finalist list.

In response, Upstage held a livestreamed verification session that shared its development logs to prove its model was developed and trained from a blank state using its own methods. But the inference code used to make the model run had used open-source elements that originated from Zhipu AI, which is widely used globally. Sionic’s CEO apologized.

The scrutiny prompted closer looks of the other finalists. Naver’s AI model was accused of bearing similarities to offerings from China’s Alibaba and OpenAI in its visual and audio encoders that translate images and sounds into a format that a machine can understand.

The Naver logo on the company's headquarters building in Seongnam, South Korea, with green arrow traffic lights in the foreground.

Naver’s headquarters in Seongnam, south of Seoul. Yonhap News/ZUMA Press

SK Telecom faced criticism that the inference codes for running its AI model bore similarities with those of China’s DeepSeek.

Naver admitted to using external encoders, but said it was a strategic decision to use a standardized technology. It stressed that the model’s core engine—which determines how it learns and is trained—were developed entirely by the company. SK Telecom made a similar argument, stressing the independence of its model’s core.

The competition’s rules didn’t explicitly state whether open-source code from foreign firms could be used or not. South Korea’s science ministry, which is overseeing the competition, hasn’t given out any new guidelines since the controversy. The country’s science minister, Bae Kyung-hoon, welcomed the robust debate.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Do the benefits of using open-source code from Chinese AI models outweigh the potential security risks? Join the conversation below.

“As I watched the technological debates currently stirring our AI industry, I actually saw a bright future for South Korean AI,” Bae wrote in a social-media post earlier this month.

The ministry declined to comment when asked by The Wall Street Journal. It plans to eliminate one of the five finalists from the competition this week as scheduled.

AI models are developed by setting and fine-tuning internal numerical values to get an output, and those core tasks don’t appear to have relied on foreign tools in the models of the finalists that have faced questions, said Jae W. Lee, director of Seoul National University’s AI Institute.

“They trained from scratch,” he said.

Write to Jiyoung Sohn at jiyoung.sohn@wsj.com

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8


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Wall Street groups hire traders to wade into prediction markets // Big financial companies expand beyond traditional securities to arbitrage event contracts in sport and politics

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  • Prediction market expansion: trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi ballooned from under $100mn monthly in early 2024 to more than $8bn by December 2025 as platforms shifted toward sports contracts.
  • Wall Street participation: firms such as DRW, Susquehanna and Tyr Capital are hiring traders to monitor prediction markets, arbitrage price discrepancies, and provide liquidity, sometimes partnering with the platforms directly.
  • Arbitrage focus: trading houses emphasize exploiting inefficiencies across siloed platforms rather than placing directional bets on headline-grabbing event outcomes.
  • High-profile endorsements: Saba Capital’s Boaz Weinstein highlighted the potential for prediction markets to enhance hedging precision and enable novel pair trades after noting divergent recession probabilities.
  • Market-maker involvement: Susquehanna, Jump Trading and Flow Traders have increased prediction-market activity, with Kalshi offering incentives like reduced fees and enhanced limits to participating liquidity providers.
  • Broader hiring push: start-ups Kirin, Anti Capital, Sfermion and G-20 Advisors are recruiting prediction market traders and quantitative engineers to model event probabilities, detect mispricing and manage risk.
  • Regulatory scrutiny and risks: high-profile wagers on Polymarket, including a mystery trader’s $400,000 win and accurate Nobel Prize predictions, coincide with proposed legislation to bar insider dealings in prediction contracts.

Trading groups are expanding into the rapidly evolving realm of prediction markets, hiring traders to arbitrage fleeting price discrepancies between contracts for events such as football games and elections.

Trading volumes on online prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, exploded in the run-up to the 2024 US presidential election and have continued to surge over the past year as the two platforms have transformed into betting sites dominated by sports contracts. 

Emboldened by the Trump administration’s light-touch approach to market regulation, some of Wall Street’s biggest names are now vying to cash in on the action themselves. In some cases, the groups have partnered with the prediction platforms to make markets and provide liquidity in certain contracts.

Don Wilson’s DRW is looking for a trader who will be paid a base salary of up to $200,000 to “monitor and trade active markets in real time” across Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a job advert posted last week, as it builds a “dedicated prediction markets desk”.

Options trading giant Susquehanna is on the hunt for traders to “detect incorrect fair values” and identify “unusual behaviours” and “inefficiencies” on prediction markets, as well as people to work on its dedicated sports trading desk. Crypto hedge fund Tyr Capital hopes to hire a prediction markets trader “who is already running sophisticated strategies”.

Trading houses are “definitely in growth mode” when it comes to prediction markets, said Madison Zitzner, vice-president of quantitative research and prop trading at recruitment firm Selby Jennings.

They “really want to understand the liquidity, the scalability that these types of strategies can bring”, she added.

Ed Hindi, chief investment officer of Tyr, said: “We are extremely bullish on prediction markets’ prospects, especially the monetary policy and economics data side of it over the coming couple of years.” DRW and Susquehanna did not respond to requests for comment.

Trading volumes in event contracts on prediction markets soared from less than $100mn a month in early 2024 to more than $8bn in December 2025.

Analysts said strict risk controls meant trading businesses would probably avoid placing direct bets on questions such as when US President Donald Trump will buy Greenland or which film will win the most Oscar awards in March.

A more attractive proposition is arbitraging between markets offering different prices for similar outcomes — mimicking how high-frequency traders exploit spreads on different stock exchanges.

“The big guys are going to be trading one market versus another, they’re not going to be throwing darts at a dartboard, betting that Trump will invade whichever country,” said Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading.

“In a market like this that’s so new, where different platforms are so siloed, there will be so many arbitrage opportunities,” he added.

Boaz Weinstein, the founder of hedge fund Saba Capital Management, said during a closed-door conference in October that prediction markets could allow portfolio managers to hedge their investments with a higher degree of specificity, especially on the probability of certain events.

This would allow investors to go “bigger” on trades, Weinstein said on stage next to Polymarket founder and chief executive Shayne Coplan.

Weinstein added that a few months earlier Polymarket showed a 50 per cent chance of a recession, while credit markets indicated a roughly 2 per cent risk. “You can come up with an infinite number of pair trades that you couldn’t do before,” he said.

A person familiar with the matter said Saba had “done nothing yet in prediction markets but watch”.

Most large multi-manager hedge funds have stayed on the sidelines, with the relative lack of liquidity on prediction markets — compared to the multitrillion-dollar markets for other asset classes — making it difficult to justify investing.

Big market-makers have been more enthusiastic. Led by billionaire Jeff Yass, Susquehanna was the first market-maker on Kalshi and has an event contracts tie-up with retail trading platform Robinhood. Participants in Kalshi’s market-maker programme receive “financial benefits, reduced fees, differing position limits and enhanced access” as incentives for providing liquidity on prediction markets, though the specifics of the arrangement are not publicly known.

Jump Trading and Amsterdam-based Flow Traders have also recently increased trading on prediction markets, according to people familiar with the matter. The companies did not respond to requests for comment. 

Other companies hiring prediction market traders include New York-based trading start-ups Kirin and Anti Capital, Chicago-based crypto investor Sfermion and Swiss trading group G-20 Advisors, which was recently hiring a quantitative engineer to “design models that estimate event probabilities, detect mispricing” and manage risk.

Recommended

Flow, Jump, Sfermion, Kirin, Anti Capital and G-20 did not respond to requests for comment.

Polymarket has come under scrutiny since a mystery trader won more than $400,000 on a well-timed bet that Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro would be captured by the US military in early January. In another incident last fall, a new user on Polymarket placed trades correctly predicting María Corina Machado as the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize just hours before the results were announced.

US Congress member Ritchie Torres has proposed legislation that would prohibit insiders “from engaging in covered transactions involving prediction market contracts”.

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They’re Coming for Our Data Centers - WSJ

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  • Data centers as target: Environmental nonprofits now oppose data center development using tactics similar to past campaigns against oil, gas, nuclear, and chemical industries.
  • Call for realism: America needs bipartisan energy and electricity policies that prioritize abundance, cost, and reliability amid accelerating AI demand.
  • Climate movement critique: After Paris Accords, net-zero rhetoric led to trillions spent on green schemes without practical returns.
  • Energy infrastructure losses: Zero-emission nuclear sites closed prematurely while coal reduction outpaced replacement, with blocked gas pipelines despite fracking benefits.
  • CEO failures noted: Many CEOs failed to oppose unworkable energy policies, allowing climate activists to dominate decisions.
  • Data centers equated to essential industry: Described as factories of the digital economy whose restriction raises compute costs and offshores technology.
  • National competitiveness stake: AI, cloud computing, finance, healthcare, manufacturing, and defense all hinge on abundant domestic compute capacity.
  • Leadership demand: Executives should publicly oppose data center moratoriums and educate on true energy requirements.

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Data center moratoriums are the new fracking bans. Environmental nonprofits are deploying the same playbook against data centers that they have used against oil, gas, nuclear and chemical companies over the past decade, and many business leaders are again tempted to stay silent.

But America is at a crucial moment that demands bipartisan realism on energy and electricity, the lifeblood of economic prosperity and global power. As artificial intelligence accelerates, abundance, cost and reliability must take precedence. Anything less will weaken national security, stifle growth and fuel inflation.

After the 2015 Paris Accords, the environmental movement initiated its attack on the carbon molecules underpinning electricity, fuel and pharmaceuticals. “Net zero,” “decarbonization” and “energy transition” became organizing principles for governments, profit centers for consultants, and buzzwords for corporate pledges rooted in financial engineering over reality. Trillions in taxpayer dollars have since been squandered on “Green New Deal” schemes in the U.S. and Europe.

We were told that eliminating carbon emissions was a moral necessity to deter an “existential” threat to humanity. Yet zero-emission nuclear plants were shut down before replacements were ready. Coal generation was dismantled faster than it could be replaced with reliable alternatives. Gas pipelines were blocked even as hydraulic fracturing unleashed energy abundance and affordability and strengthened America’s global position. In the past decade, the U.S. has removed more than 100 gigawatts of reliable coal and nuclear generation. Europe deindustrialized with even greater zeal, producing higher costs, poorer citizens and populist backlash.

Looking back, too many CEOs failed to challenge energy policies they knew were unworkable. Some supported them outright, either because they misunderstood physics or because political pressure made dissent risky. Climate activists were handed the reins as targets replaced trade-offs and aspirations replaced economic sense.

The arsonists are donning the firefighter helmets again. Trying to stop data center construction while expecting continued economic growth is no different from trying to stop oil, gas and nuclear production while expecting reliable, affordable electricity.

Data centers aren’t a luxury. They are the factories of the 21st-century economy, converting energy into processing capacity the way refineries convert oil into gasoline and chemical plants convert minerals into batteries. Treating them as something society can simply “pause” doesn’t reduce demand for digital services; it constrains the supply of compute, raising costs and outsourcing technological progress elsewhere.

The U.S. can’t afford to repeat its energy mistakes. Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, finance, healthcare, manufacturing and defense all require abundant, affordable compute power built at home. CEOs need not speculate about whether data center moratoriums will hurt their businesses—they already know the answer.

Leadership now means speaking up, telling the truth about what energy and electricity actually require and saying no to data center moratoriums.

Mr. Huntsman is chairman and CEO of Huntsman Corp., a petrochemical manufacturer.

Journal Editorial Report: The week's best and worst from Kim Strassel, Allysia Finley and Dan Henninger. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images/Isabel Infantes/Reuters/Michael Brochstein/Zuma Press

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Why white women go for ‘Dark Woke’ // They turn private despair into public rage

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  • Dark Woke definition: Described as a combative meme-oriented strategy that rejects traditional political correctness, merging crude humor with aggressive tactics to make Democrats appear formidable.
  • Movement’s resurgence: Following Renee Good’s death, activists are increasingly visible from the Midwest to the Pacific coast, demanding Democrats adopt tougher cultural stances or face primary challenges.
  • Millennial white women’s role: The movement’s “shock troops” are often upscale Millennial moms who protect ICE targets, track enforcement activity, and seize opportunities for collective action.
  • Social media tactics: Viral clips show confrontational interactions with law enforcement and journalists, while TikTok hints at Personal empowerment framing targeting men to join disruptive acts.
  • ICE watcher network: Reported coordination through nonprofits and messaging apps, where volunteers document arrests, gather family contacts, and monitor federal agents amid Trump’s crackdown.
  • Psychological profile: Research cited links higher rates of loneliness, depression, and agency loss among liberal young women, along with traits tied to internalizing symptoms, possibly fueling confrontational activism.
  • Family and community factors: Analysts connect loneliness gaps to lower marriage and church attendance among liberal women, suggesting those institutions mitigate distress and reduce likelihood of radicalized engagement.
  • Underlying concern: The author contends that the deeper injury is social fragmentation and loss of community, implying that the activism offers temporary catharsis rather than lasting satisfaction.

Dark Woke won’t be vanquished. In the wake of Renee Good’s death in Minneapolis, the movement is reasserting itself from the Midwest to the Pacific coast, pushing Democrats to embrace combative cultural stances — and white, Millennial women are its shock troops.

The New York Times defined “Dark Woke” last year as “an attempt to step outside the bounds of the political correctness that Republicans have accused Democrats of establishing.” In the Gray Lady’s telling, it “requires being crass but discerning, rude but only to a point.” Examples range from Gavin Newsom’s meme warfare to Jasmine Crockett’s alliterative insults (“Will a vindictive, vile villain violate voters’ vision?”). GQ, meanwhile, observed that the objective is to “subvert the qualities that people think made wokeness cringe — the virtue policing, the polite ‘when they go low, we go high’ posturing — and go Joker mode to make Democrats cool again.” 

These aren’t mutually exclusive definitions. Dark Woke is a meme with amorphous contours. Sometimes, it’s merely rhetorical; other times, it offers serious strategies to challenge MAGA with a dose of its own post-liberal medicine. Either way, it’s rooted in the same demand posed by grassroots Democrats to the party establishment: throw some punches, or we’ll primary you into oblivion.

Since Good’s demise on the icy streets of Minnesota, videos of enraged anti-ICE protesters are proliferating on social media. In one clip posted by the Fox News reporter Matt Finn, an ICE agent goes up to two shiny SUVs blocking traffic, warning the women in them not to “make a bad decision.” The women, both of whom appear to be Millennials, aren’t intimidated. “I think I’m making exactly the right decision,” one says. When the officer signs off with, “Thank you, have a good day,” she replies with a grin: “I hope you have a terrible day.” In another viral clip, a gaggle of whistling women surround a reporter; one gleefully taunts him as another screams, “Nazi!” 

Or there’s the TikTok video circulating on X, in which a blue-eyed, salt-and-pepper-haired woman who describes herself as a 42-year-old single mother and “relationship anarchist” slips sexily into her Carhartt overalls while spelling out a “dating-profile request” for a man whom she can “call, right now, and say, ‘Hey, get in the passenger seat and let’s go fuck some shit up.’” 

These street soldiers aren’t the antifa types torching cars or the rioters looting stores. They are, like Good, Millennial moms in the Midwest. They’re people from normal quarters of American life who are spending time during the workday putting their bodies and vehicles on the line to protect illegal migrants, some with serious criminal records, from deportation. And they see ICE as a neo-Gestapo that calls for more than rhetorical condemnation.

The Washington Post this week wrote about the growing activist coalition: “As the Trump administration deploys thousands of federal immigration officers and agents around the nation, a loose-knit but increasingly organized network of activists is tracking their whereabouts and documenting arrests.” With whistles and messaging apps, these ICE “watchers” or “verifiers” are often trained by nonprofit groups, according to the Post article, which adds that they are “dispatched to spot arrests, record interactions, and, where possible, get contact information for family members of those arrested.”

This partly explains why Dark Woke is growing amid President Trump’s immigration crackdown. Tracking ICE supplies a sense of agency and community at a time when people feel powerless and atomized. It is also a clue as to why there are so many upscale white women in the ranks of the Dark Woke army. 

“Tracking ICE supplies a sense of agency and community at a time when people feel powerless and atomized.”

Last fall, the GOP pollster Alex Tarascio “asked likely voters if they agreed that it’s acceptable to go beyond peaceful protest in response to ICE enforcement, even if it breaks the law,” as he put it in an X post. “Overall, just 24% of Americans agreed. But among white women, 18 to 44, who identify as liberal? The number shoots up to 61%.” Half that number, only 30%, disagreed. Among all liberals, the number was nearly 20 points lower, at 42%. And among all likely voters, the number dropped to less than a quarter of the population.  

Why are white liberal women especially eager for battle? People like Good are motivated by a sincere commitment to social justice, to be sure. Good was so moved by the prospect of ICE deportations in Minneapolis that she joined a midday protest after dropping off her 6-year-old at school.

However, there is also no shortage of research in recent years showing that young women on the Left struggle more with mental health than do other cohorts. In 2024, Times columnist Thomas Edsall dug into studies on the “happiness gap,” noting “one of the findings emerging from this research is that the decline in happiness and in a sense of agency is concentrated among those on the Left who stress matters of identity, social justice and the oppression of marginalized groups.”

In 2025, a study published by Zach Goldberg at the Right-of-center Manhattan Institute found that “females and liberals tend to rank higher than their male and conservative counterparts in certain personality traits that are associated with greater susceptibility to internalizing symptoms. These symptoms are characterized by inwardly directed emotional distress, including feelings of sadness, worry, and fear, which can manifest as conditions like depression and anxiety.” 

Research from the Institute for Family Studies has likewise found that “when we control for education, race, age, and income, …  liberal women ages 18 to 40 are over three times as likely to report frequent feelings of loneliness compared to their conservative peers.”  

Renee Good, of course, was married and — at least in the tragic record of her final minutes — cheerful in demeanor. Unhappiness and lapsed agency may or may not explain her personal decision. However, it’s fair to speculate that rational disapproval of Trump is not the only explanation for why more and more young progressive women are training as “ICE watchers” and joining physical protests. Tellingly, the Institute for Family Studies found that “a large part of [the] loneliness gap comes from different rates of marriage and church attendance. … Adding controls for marriage and church attendance, ideology becomes less important, with marriage being the strongest predictor of feeling less lonely.”

Feelings of misery and powerlessness, especially acute on the young female Left, will ensure Dark Woke lingers, and reemerges as opportunities for catharsis present themselves. These opportunities will be especially compelling when they offer a perceived sense of community, or of self-sacrifice for the common good. 

Satisfaction, though, will prove illusory, because the source of the young women’s pain is not really injustice, except in the sense that a grave injustice has been committed against happiness in the destruction of our communities, social bonds, and overall humanity.


Emily Jashinsky is UnHerd‘s Washington correspondent.

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