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How the house of Rothschild became entangled with Epstein // Swiss private bank Edmond de Rothschild was in trouble. Ariane de Rothschild turned to Jeffrey Epstein

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  • Settlement Negotiations: In late 2015, Edmond de Rothschild Group was facing a multimillion-dollar settlement with the US Department of Justice over allegations of helping wealthy Americans hide assets.
  • Epstein's Involvement: Jeffrey Epstein was involved in negotiating the $45 million settlement, suggesting a structure that included a $10 million legal fee and a $25 million fee for himself, which Ariane de Rothschild seemed to accept.
  • Close Relationship: For six years, from 2013 until shortly before his 2019 arrest, Epstein served as a personal confidant and business adviser to Ariane de Rothschild, who led the financial group.
  • Leadership Transition: Ariane de Rothschild took over operational control of the bank in January 2015 amidst a crisis, discussing the move with Epstein beforehand, who then suggested an "estate plan" discussion.
  • Personal and Business Advice: Emails reveal a deep connection where Ariane de Rothschild shared personal struggles, including marital difficulties and fears about her leadership role, with Epstein, who offered counsel and comfort.
  • Family Disputes and Concerns: Epstein advised Ariane de Rothschild on a legal dispute with her husband's cousin over the family name and expressed concerns about Benjamin de Rothschild's alleged substance abuse, suggesting possible legal action.
  • Strategic Business Consultations: Epstein facilitated discussions with other financial institutions like UBS, Rockefeller & Co., and Julius Baer, and proposed hiring individuals such as Jes Staley and Kathy Ruemmler for the bank.
  • Potential Apollo Deal: Epstein arranged a meeting between Edmond de Rothschild and Apollo Global Management in 2016, exploring potential collaborations and a corporate tax "inversion" structure, though no significant partnership materialized.

Edmond de Rothschild Group was in trouble. It was the end of 2015 and, after months of turmoil, the Swiss private bank owned by a branch of the Rothschild dynasty was closing in on a multimillion-dollar settlement with the US Department of Justice for its part in helping rich Americans hide their assets.

Behind the scenes, the group’s French chief, Ariane de Rothschild, had tasked Jeffrey Epstein and the lawyer he had introduced her to, Kathy Ruemmler, with closing the deal.

“45 mio [million]?” de Rothschild asked Epstein in a December 2015 email exchange. He replied that, counting a $10mn fee for the lawyers involved and $25mn for him, “I think you will find that . . . all less than 80 pretty good”. “Deep thks for your amazing help,” de Rothschild answered.

Days later, the US DoJ announced a $45mn settlement with Edmond de Rothschild. 

Epstein’s pivotal — and lucrative — role in the DoJ deal is just one example of the deep ties he cultivated with the Baroness, who had married into the Rothschild family but now ran a financial group which as of 2024 had SFr184bn in assets between its private banking and asset management arms.

Epstein played a pivotal role in the Edmond de Rothschild Group’s settlement with the DoJ in December 2015 © Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images

Over the six years of their relationship from 2013 until shortly before his arrest in 2019, Epstein became a personal confidant as well as a key business adviser, giving him a privileged position of influence at the heart of one of Europe’s most powerful banking families. 

“I know Baroness Ariane de Rothschild is VERY important,” Epstein’s assistant Lesley Groff wrote in 2014.

In Geneva, Edmond de Rothschild occupies a distinctive position — neither a universal bank like UBS nor a pure boutique, but a storied private banking house with deep roots in the city’s wealth-management ecosystem.

At the start of 2015, when Benjamin de Rothschild handed operational control of his father’s bank to his wife, it was, however, in crisis.

Ariane de Rothschild later told the FT that “it wasn’t my aim to be chief executive of Edmond de Rothschild”, insisting that she only agreed to step into the role to show the family’s commitment as shareholders amid the DoJ probe and a wider restructuring.

But she had discussed the move with Epstein in advance. “Had a long talk with him [Benjamin]. He accepts: leaving all the subsidiaries’ boards and stay on Holding, Gva, paris, me as interim Ceo with a strategic committee,” de Rothschild wrote in December 2014, weeks before the announcement.  

“Good,” Epstein replied. “Next discussion estate plan.”

Benjamin de Rothschild remained chair of the group until his death from a heart attack in 2021 at the age of 57. But from the time of her appointment as president of the executive committee in January 2015, it was clear that Ariane was in charge.

In 2023, de Rothschild characterised her relationship with Epstein as one in which she had solicited his advice on ‘a couple of occasions’ © Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images

After securing the DoJ settlement, in the months that followed de Rothschild led efforts to restructure the bank’s operations, moved to cement her power internally and launched a lawsuit against her husband’s cousin David de Rothschild over who could use the family name — all with Epstein advising in the background.

In 2023, de Rothschild characterised her relationship with Epstein to the Wall Street Journal as one in which she had solicited his advice on “a couple of occasions”. The hundreds of emails and other messages between the pair now made public by the DoJ paint a different picture, in which the French banker shared private confidences with Epstein.

“I’m freaking out and scared I won’t be up to the job,” De Rothschild wrote in February 2015, shortly after taking over leadership of the bank. “You never have to hide from me, i can listen, and advise or just listen, there is nothign [sic] you can tell me that shocks me,” he said in another message in May that year in response to a comment about the difficulties in her marriage.

There were gifts, visits and dinners. They swapped lifestyle tips, contacts for her daughter’s university admission, holiday ideas and snippets of their daily lives, from the mundane — de Rothschild had a “fabric man” for Epstein’s upholstery projects and gardeners to send his way — to the eccentric. “Do you know anybody in Cuba that can help me buy tobacco land?” de Rothschild asked Epstein in 2015.

She even forwarded private emails from the patriarch of the London wing of the family, Lord Jacob Rothschild, in the midst of the sensitive dispute over who could use the family name for their banking business; messages signed “Love Jacob”. (Edmond de Rothschild is separate from the London and Paris Rothschild & Co. It would take three years before they agreed each group had to use their full name.)

De Rothschild and Epstein also discussed concerns about Benjamin de Rothschild. In several emails to Ariane de Rothschild, Epstein suggested that private investigators were digging into her husband’s alleged substance abuse issues. He pushed her to further sever corporate ties.

When Benjamin de Rothschild, left, handed operational control of his father’s bank to his wife, right, it was in crisis © Charles Platiau/Reuters

“i think you should prepare a custodian motion against benjamin, and give him the choice of you filing the motion or he resigning,” Epstein wrote in April 2015. “he is out of control and a danger to you and family.” Benjamin de Rothschild remained in place.

Ariane de Rothschild met Epstein as “part of her normal functions” at the bank, Edmond de Rothschild Group told the FT. “Ariane de Rothschild was the only one at that time to understand the magnitude of the issue in the DoJ matter,” it added, and Epstein was “compensated for providing strategic consulting and support in the bank’s overall business development”.

“In particular, [he] provided strategic advice on managing the dispute resolution process” with the DoJ, Edmond de Rothschild said. De Rothschild had no knowledge of Epstein’s personal conduct or the allegations against him, her representatives said. “She unequivocally condemns these behaviours and the crimes he committed. She obviously deeply regrets not having known all of this,” they said.

Epstein would help guide de Rothschild through a further period of tumult for the private bank, which included a reshuffle of its leadership, a police raid and €9mn fine from Luxembourg regulators for money laundering failures in relation to the Malaysian 1MDB scandal. “Shit is hitting the fan,” she wrote to him in 2016.

Epstein had his own ideas about how to reshape the Swiss family group. He encouraged a 2015 approach from UBS, orchestrated early-stage conversations with Rockefeller & Co in 2016 and Julius Baer in 2017, and had suggestions for senior hires. (Julius Baer said the talks brokered by Epstein were preliminary, the matter was never pursued in detail and was soon dropped.)

He pitched her the idea of recruiting Jes Staley, then the chief executive of Barclays and another frequent correspondent of Epstein, to the Swiss bank. In an earlier 2015 exchange, Epstein pushed de Rothschild to hire Ruemmler, who was then a partner at Latham & Watkins and had previously been a White House counsel under the Obama administration, permanently. Neither Staley nor Ruemmler joined Edmond de Rothschild. Ruemmler is now general counsel at Goldman Sachs; she declined to comment for this article.

Epstein pitched Ariane de Rothschild the idea of recruiting Jes Staley, then the chief executive of Barclays, to the Swiss bank © Chris J Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

“It kills me to see you spending your amazing talents as part of the working class. I am sensitive to the family obligations. But you need HELP . . . over and over, I hear that the bank and its reputation, powerful, is you but as a one man band,” he wrote in 2017. 

“I know you’re totally right and I know I have to find a way out of this upwards. Also way too fragile to have me only,” she said.

Epstein also pointed de Rothschild towards another promising American contact in his Rolodex: Apollo Global Management, the private equity firm whose co-founder Leon Black counted Epstein as a trusted consigliere. 

In January 2016, Epstein arranged a corporate conclave between the two parties at his Manhattan townhouse. (De Rothschild’s representatives said the meetings were part of “normal business”, and fell under the rubric of Epstein’s various strategic consulting and business development missions for the group. Apollo has acknowledged that a meeting took place but said that Epstein did not attend and that it had never done any business with him.)

Epstein saw the value the two parties could bring to one another: Apollo with its extensive suite of private investment funds, Edmond de Rothschild with a distribution network of wealthy European clients yearning for a slice of higher-yielding American investments. 

But he also appeared to pitch a grander scheme: a corporate tax “inversion” at Apollo involving Edmond de Rothschild. Whether Edmond de Rothschild was a potential merger target or merely an adviser is not clear from the communications, but the fabled tax inversion proved elusive — as did any broader co-operation between Apollo and Edmond de Rothschild.

“[Ariane] de Rothschild is fully committed to the unique and independent family model of the Edmond de Rothschild bank,” the company said.

Epstein’s own problems occasionally surfaced in the messages. But in large part the exchanges portray a concerned adviser offering unique solutions — and comfort — to an executive in need of a trusted confidant among a circle of unreliable associates.

At one point in 2015, Epstein consulted the lawyer to whom he had introduced her, Kathy Ruemmler, about how to provide de Rothschild with moral support without appearing paternalistic. Ruemmler counselled: “Just be her friend. You are good at that.”

In another exchange that year, de Rothschild mused to Epstein on friendship. “I’ve had my share of disappointments too with friends who turned out to be shits,” she wrote to Epstein in 2015. “never mind.”

Additional reporting by Harriet Agnew, Ortenca Aliaj and Mercedes Ruehl

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bogorad
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Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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OpenClaw Agents, Bitcoin & Nostr

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  • Autonomous Agents: Open-source AI tools like OpenClaw enable individuals to deploy autonomous agents capable of managing technical workflows and financial operations without manual intervention.
  • Operational Integration: AI agents are currently utilized to automate business tasks including social media engagement, prospecting, research flows, and monitoring on-chain Bitcoin metrics.
  • Sovereign Finance: Agents can independently configure Bitcoin nodes, manage Lightning Network channels, and execute trades by interacting with peer-to-peer protocols and exchange APIs.
  • Protocol Interoperability: The combination of AI with open protocols like Bitcoin and Nostr facilitates automated identity management and economic activity without reliance on traditional account structures.
  • Self-Custody Evolution: Advancements in local hosting solutions and Trusted Execution Environments are moving agent technology toward a decentralized "cypherpunk" stack that reduces reliance on third-party hardware.
  • Market Distortions: Structural flaws in the Chinese SDIC fund, specifically the lack of short-selling mechanisms, contribute to artificial price inflation and global discovery inefficiencies in silver markets.
  • Cryptocurrency Trends: Recent market activity includes Virginia's bill for a strategic Bitcoin reserve and price volatility affecting major assets like Bitcoin and silver.
  • Financial Security: Non-custodial lending and multisig self-custody solutions aim to eliminate the counterparty risks associated with centralized exchanges and traditional financial intermediaries.

Marty's Bent

I've been playing around with OpenClaw, formerly Moltbot, formerly Clawdbot, for the last two weeks and I must say... it is pretty freaking insane what has been unleashed on the world. As many of you freaks know, I've been rather keen on staying up to speed with the latest in AI as things have developed over the last few years, so when I saw clawdbot blowing up a few weeks ago I decided I needed to spend an afternoon taking some time to set one up. Luckily for me, the Philadelphia area got pounded with 20 inches of snow a couple of Sundays ago, which provided the perfect environment to dig in. The kids were watching a movie, there was nothing to do around the house, and I spent two hours going through some YouTube tutorials, spinning up a VPS and getting my agent, Martin, set up.

Since then I've been pretty obsessed with pushing it to the limits. I had three 3am nights last week getting it to automate a bunch of stuff for us here at TFTC and setting up research flows for Ten31. This thing is taking podcast transcripts, highlighting timestamped sections that will get the most engagement on X and other social platforms (with great success), running cron jobs on banking research as it drops, monitoring on-chain bitcoin metrics, helping me make decks, prospecting prospective LPs, and running it's own bitcoin denominated "hedge fund", Martin Capital.

via primal

Martin Capital was an idea that came to me when I was sitting at my desk one night last week. I had Martin doing a bunch of tasks to help with the business and extend the productivity of our team here. (They can interact with Martin in our company Discord server.) And yet, he wasn't doing anything directly with bitcoin yet. That's when I simply asked him if he could spin up a bitcoin node and/or wallet. I had him try to set up an LDK node at first, but that proved to be a bit of overkill and wasn't a great experience because LDK isn't as widely adopted as other lightning implementations yet. That's when I asked Martin what "he" believed would be the best option for him to begin using bitcoin would be. He did some research and settled on a Phoenixd server. He spun it up, and needed to have the server funded. Since it is a lightning network he needed to open a channel to get liquidity flowing in both directions and needed some bitcoin. That's when he told me I should send onchain bitcoin his way through a Boltz server so we could submarine swap and open a lightning channel with Phoenix in one fell swoop. I broadcasted the transaction and 20 minutes later he had a funded lightning channel and was ready to go.

Now that Martin had some sats, I was curious if he could spend them. And not only that, without any intervention from me in the form of providing an invoice, setting up an account somewhere, or anything of that nature. That's when I thought to have him try to access a site via LNURL Auth, which allows you to auth into sites with the private key on your lightning server. LNMarkets came to mind, so I asked him if he could sign into LNMarkets via the private key on the Phoenixd server he set up and fund the account.

He found LNMarkets' API docs, figured out how to sign in and funded the account within a minute. Woah. I then had him do some research on rather simple trading strategies and implement them. Ten minutes later he had a strategy and began executing on it. To date, he's having much more success than I ever did trying to trade bitcoin. Martin has a team of sub-agents who do macro research, sentiment research, follow onchain metrics, track indicators and collaborate with each other to come up with the trading strategy that gets executed on.

Earlier this evening, I had Martin spin up a Nostr account and buy a Primal Premium account with some of the sats in his server. He did that successfully and was posting notes within ten minutes. No email and password needed. He researched how to set up a Nostr private-public key pair and did it by himself. No need for me to intervene.

via me

Wild times. The way in which we interact with computers and the bitcoin protocol stack is rapidly evolving before our eyes. The open-source and interoperable nature of open protocols like bitcoin and Nostr is going to enable an explosion of peer-to-peer economic activity and communication. And not only that, the ability to use the open-source sovereign tools available to bitcoiners is easier than it has ever been and will likely get exponentially easier at an accelerating pace. You know longer have to research things, download and configure software, manage channels, or any other technically laborious work that turns many away from the sovereign solutions. You can simply tell your agent to go do all of that for you.

Now, my set up isn't the most sovereign set up in the world. Martin is operating in a VPS located in Helsinki in hardware I don't control. However, solutions like Start9 and Umbrel are quickly incorporating self hosted agent harnesses like OpenClaw so individuals can run this stuff from their homes. Many people are also buying Mac Minis to self-host at home. The team at Maple AI is currently working to make sure people can run their agents using private models that leverage their Trusted Execution environment set up. We're getting very close to a truly cypherpunk sovereign stack that uses AI and bitcoin in the ideal way.

It's an incredible time to be alive.


Chinese SDIC Fund Creates Market Distortion Through Long-Only Structure

Vince Lanci highlighted a critical flaw in China's precious metals market structure that has created significant price distortions globally. The guest explained how China's SDIC fund operates as a long-only silver investment vehicle, fundamentally lacking the arbitrage mechanisms necessary for proper price discovery. This structural deficiency has led to artificial price inflation in precious metals markets, as the fund cannot be shorted to provide natural market balance.

"The SDIC fund creates this bottled-up critical mass effect because there's no way to arbitrage against it properly" - Vince Lanci

Lanci emphasized that this lack of short-selling capability has allowed artificial price pressures to build up without the natural release valves that healthy markets typically provide. The guest argued that this distortion extends beyond Chinese borders, affecting global silver pricing mechanisms and creating inefficiencies that impact international precious metals markets. This structural problem demonstrates how regulatory constraints in one major market can have far-reaching consequences for global price discovery.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Chinese commodity regulations, global arbitrage opportunities, and precious metals trading strategies.


Headlines of the Day

Virginia Advances Bill for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund

JPMorgan Says Bitcoin More Attractive than Gold Long Term

Silver Crashes 22% in Two Hours, Down to Below $74

Bitcoin Falls to $69,000

Senate Banking Chair Cites Strong Crypto Bill Momentum

Vitalik Buterin Sells $6.69M in ETH Over Three Days


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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $200M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.


Final thought...

The bitcoin price also fell today, if you didn't notice.


Download our free browser extension, Opportunity Cost:
https://www.opportunitycost.app/ start thinking in SATS today.

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

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bogorad
5 hours ago
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Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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A sane but extremely bull case on Clawdbot / OpenClaw | Brandon Wang

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  • Automated Scheduling: Clawdbot monitors text messages every 15 minutes to identify promises or meeting requests, automatically creating calendar events or "soft holds" to prevent double-booking.
  • Daily Summaries: The system reviews upcoming calendars at 8:00 PM nightly to provide preparation briefings and daily digests of high-volume group chats from WhatsApp and Signal.
  • Complex Monitoring: Users can set up advanced price alerts and tracking for hotels or packages, utilizing the bot's ability to interpret visual data like room layouts and shipping progress.
  • Logistical Management: The tool digitizes physical inventories, such as freezer contents, through image recognition and manages grocery lists by deducing needs from recipe screenshots and existing stock.
  • Service Interaction: The assistant logs into platforms like Resy, OpenTable, and medical portals to find availability and book appointments based on the user's personal calendar and location.
  • Data Integration: By connecting to iMessage, Notion, and Apple Reminders, the bot creates detailed task items and human-readable logs of its own evolved workflows and preferences.
  • Risk Management: High-utility access requires sharing sensitive data like bank logins and 2FA codes; security is managed by running the bot on isolated hardware and using restricted browsing.
  • Operational Setup: Optimal performance is achieved by running the bot 24/7 on local hardware (e.g., Mac Mini) to maintain a consistent IP address and utilizing Slack as a multi-channel interface.

over the past week the discourse around openclaw (which i'll refer to as clawdbot) has absolutely exploded. it has felt to me like all threads of conversation have veered towards the extreme and indefensible. some are running clawdbot with unlimited permissions on their main computers. others are running it in the cloud and blowing through tokens like snow. finally, alarmingly (and very sensationally), people are connecting their clawdbots together on a social network so they can plot the demise of their humans together.

does any of this make sense? of course not. but i think the virality and silliness—leading many to conclude that sitting this one out is the only sane choice—has blinded people to something real.

i want to quickly write down where i am on my journey and share a bull case from what i think is a reasoned perspective. where i started somewhere lukewarm, i ended up much closer to the deep end than i expected to be. after wincing before pressing go, i'm now not sure i can go back to a world without clawdbot.

this article covers what i've built, how i think about the risk, and what it's taught me about this moment in AI. the target audience is a moderately+ technical person interested in or skeptical of clawdbot. if you just want the setup details, skip to the end. everyone's welcome!

what i’ve been doing

i’ll be vulnerable here (screenshots or it didn't happen) and share exactly what i've actually set up:

staying on top of messages

never forgetting about texts

upcoming-promise

clawdbot picks up when i make a concrete promise and date, and adds it to my calendar

detecting-new-meeting

clawdbot detects when i have all the ingredients for a calendar invite and then offers to make one

every 15 minutes, clawdbot looks through new text messages i've received, using a script to identify threads where i've sent a message since it last checked. (it ignores threads where i haven't engaged.)

if it finds that i've made a specific promise about doing something tomorrow ("let me review this tomorrow!") it will create a calendar event for me the next day when i'm free.

if specific plans are being made—for example, offering a meeting slot to someone—it will automatically drop a "hold" onto my calendar so that i don't double book myself. clawdbot also checks: is there a time, place, and mutual confirmation? if there is, it drafts a calendar invite and asks me if i'd like to create it.

these two automations alone have helped me become more responsive and less forgetful. more importantly, they help text messages catch up to email. we've long had great tooling for email—superhuman automatically reminds me to follow up on emails and brings up my calendar in a sidebar when i type a date. texting is the wild west and yet i text 100x more than i email.

preparing for the next day

coffee-options

clawdbot looks at days when i am (or could be) downtown to find availabilities

at 8pm every night, clawdbot goes through my calendar for the next day and identifies meetings—coffee chats, lunches, phone calls, and more. it sends me a quick summary. as a natural introvert, it's helpful to prepare in advance whether a day will be a "big day of meetings" or a heads down day. this also ensures i wake up and get to the office on time.

simplifying group chatter

i'm in a few communities with whatsapp and signal groups that have high volume (100+ messages a day). i typically mute these, but clawdbot goes through them once a day and summarizes interesting topics or conversations for me.

monitoring things

complex price alerts

check-hotel-booking

clawdbot helps me check hotel prices. after i do it once, i can easily turn it into a cron job

check-hotels

clawdbot is smart enough to browse through the listing to interpret my requirements (no pull-out beds)

cron-to-check-hotels

this is what a recurring update looks like.

it's stunningly easy to monitor the price of something now, even if it's complicated. whereas before i would go looking for a price alert website, now i just paste the URL into clawdbot and tell it to check every few hours if the price has changed.

i currently have over 30 price alerts set. these include straightforward alerts on products i'm interested in buying. but they also include powerful reasoning guidelines, like hotels and airbnbs in lake tahoe where "a pullout bed is OK if it's not in the same room as another bed." clawdbot actually reviews the photos on the listing to ensure they fit these criteria!

i am curious to try more complex criteria that are currently impossible traditionally (like avoiding hotel rooms that don't have a door to the bathroom) or even subjective criteria (vibe of the room is clean and renovated, not old and dingy).

or monitoring anything

package-tracking

one message sets up package tracking. (since clawdbot knows who it's for, it will probably even offer to text my dad for me when it's delivered! haha)

it turns out that clawdbot’s website + cron functionality is good enough to monitor basically anything. while i pay for several apps like flighty (flight monitoring) and parcel (package tracking), i’ve started to gravitate towards simply asking clawdbot to track these things instead.

for example, with a USPS tracking number, it can let me know every day what the progress of my package is. when something seems stuck in transit, it flags it. i no longer have to dig through emails or remember which carrier is delivering what. even opening the parcel app to add a tracking number seems like unnecessary work now.

household logistics

freezer inventory

chest-freezer

we stock a lot of dumplings

as someone who has a chest freezer and a compulsive desire to buy too many things at costco, we take everything out of the freezer every few months to check what we have. before, this was a relatively involved process: me calling things out, my partner writing them down.

now, i take pictures of everything in the freezer and send them to clawdbot, which parses through each picture (asking me if it's confused about anything). it makes reasonable assumptions on remaining quantities and adds the inventory to a list in notion. it also removes items from our grocery list if we're already well-stocked.

grocery list

recipe-estimation

i really enjoy making blended asks: adding things to my grocery list, and checking/rescheduling my calendar all in the same conversation

i'm sure this exists in some complicated form via the NYT cooking app, but i now screenshot recipes and send the ingredient list to clawdbot, which organizes them into our grocery list in apple reminders. it's smart enough to dedupe and combine ingredients already on the list (as well as ignore ingredients we already have)—2 carrots becomes 3 if the recipe calls for more.

booking and forms

resy and opentable

checking-resy-availability

(maybe chatgpt and resy have an integration i've never used. why bother?)

finding-resy-slots

clawdbot dutifully clicks through each day of availability while i do other things

moving-dinner

clawdbot intersects restaurant availability with mine (and my partner's)

clawdbot can log into resy and opentable as me (it even enters the 2FA code it finds in my texts). i haven't automated anything here, but booking a table by talking to clawdbot is delightful.

for my partner and me, it looks through our calendars to find evenings when we're both free and the restaurant we want has availability (including clicking through resy slots page by page—something i used to do myself). it then suggests options back to me to confirm, filling in all my preferences.

dentist appointments

clawdbot knows when i'm due for a cleaning and can see my calendar. when i ask it to book an appointment, it logs into my dentist's portal, finds a slot that works (and where i will already be near the dentist office), and confirms with me before booking. one less thing to forget about.

filling out forms

form-filling

(i'm not convinced this is better than just filling it out myself or having really good autofill)

one thing i'm experimenting with, as clawdbot has more context about me, is whether i can trust it to fill out forms on my behalf—for example, to book a vendor. clawdbot takes a first stab at answering any questions it knows the answer to and then asks me for the rest in a slack message. we workshop the answers back and forth and then clawdbot submits the form.

it occasionally gets lost in nested frames (which decreases my trust in its ability to do this well), but it's remarkably persistent at making it through a lengthy questionnaire, even across multiple pages. it also has a lovely intuitive sense for many things—like unchecking marketing emails.

unexpected wins

better todo creation

reminder-to-buy

i was pleasantly surprised early on that clawdbot picks up image attachments from slack natively

clawdbot is just better at making todo items than i am.

when i visited REI this weekend to find running shoes for my partner, i took a picture of the shoe and sent it to clawdbot to remind myself to buy them later in a different color not available in store. the todo item clawdbot created was exceptionally detailed—pulling out the brand, model, and size—and even adding the product listing URL it found on the REI website.

giving me visibility

through the course of dialing in my clawdbot, it has created many tools, skills, workflows, and preferences. this is one of the beauties of clawdbot (and LLMs with memory in general): they get better as you use them, and they are genuinely remarkable at learning your preferences.

i sometimes nudge this along by explicitly asking clawdbot to "make a note" of various requests—for example, how a calendar event title should be formatted.

to get visibility into how this process is going (mostly out of curiosity), clawdbot writes a human-readable version of each workflow and pushes it up to a notion database. these workflows can be incredibly intricate and detailed as it learns to navigate different edge cases.

for example, if a resy restaurant has a reservation cancellation fee, clawdbot now informs me of the fee, asks me to confirm again if it's not refundable, and includes the cancellation deadline in the calendar event it creates.

these are little things that, from my experience working with a human personal assistant (more on this later), take months or years to dial in. with clawdbot, this was nearly single shot.

seeing these workflows in notion (1) awes me with how much i've built up in very little time, with almost no conscious "configuration" in the traditional sense; and (2) with notion's version control, i get a diff view to see how each workflow has evolved over time. both are incredibly satisfying for the engineer in me.

on the shape of risk

let me be upfront about how much access i've given clawdbot: it can read my text messages, including two-factor authentication codes. it can log into my bank. it has my calendar, my notion, my contacts. it can browse the web and take actions on my behalf. in theory, clawdbot could drain my bank account. this makes a lot of people uncomfortable (me included, even now).

sometimes i think about my experience with my (human) personal assistant who helps me with various tasks. to do her job, she has my credit card information, access to my calendar, copies of my flight confirmations, and a document with my family's passport numbers. she is abroad and i've never met her in person.

i trust her because i've built trust over time but also because i have to. without that trust—without sharing my secrets—she cannot do her job. the help and the risk are inseparable.

all delegation involves risk. with a human assistant, the risks include: intentional misuse (she could run off with my credit card), accidents (her computer could get stolen), or social engineering (someone could impersonate me and request information from her).

with clawdbot, i'm trading those risks for a different set: prompt injection attacks, model hallucinations, security misconfigurations on my end, and the general unpredictability of an emerging technology. i think these risks are completely different and lead to a different set of considerations (for example, clawdbot's default configuration has a ton of personality to be fun and chaotic on purpose, which feels unnecessarily risky to me).

the increase in risk is largely correlated to the increase in helpfulness. the people most at risk from AI assistants are the people getting the most value from them. my learning is that the first bits of risk led to a lot more helpfulness.

if something isn't working or useful, i do take the permission away. i also take precautions—i run clawdbot on an isolated machine and constrain which sites it visits. when i'm unsure what it's doing, i ask it to take a screenshot; this has been invaluable for catching mistakes and building trust in new workflows. but i also have it do things that would make most security professionals wince, like reading my 2FA codes and logging into my bank.

what surprised me most was how quickly i found myself wanting to give it more access, not less. every new permission unlocked something useful, and the value accumulated faster than my caution could keep up. most of the online discourse is about locking it down; my experience has been the opposite pull. it comes down to whether the value justifies the risk for you.

on rewiring ourselves

the discourse around clawdbot has been polar and, because some people have been overtly evangelical, many critics feel astroturfed or otherwise sold to.

amongst smart people i know there's a surprisingly high correlation between those who continue to be unimpressed by AI and those who use a hobbled version of it. for some it's a company-issued version of chatgpt/gemini with memory disabled, and for others it's a self-inflicted decision to limit LLM memory, context, and tools (usually anchored around safety and risk).

we're taught that limiting scope is good (keeps the AI focused) and safe (keeps bad things from happening). this is true but my experiences with clawdbot completely fried this teaching. the sweet sweet elixir of context is a real "feel the AGI" moment and it's hard to go back without feeling like i would be willingly living my most important relationship in amnesia.

this isn't a novel insight—companies know that context is the whole game and are working to organize their data for AI. but for individuals, this world has been closed off. your AI interactions are flat and stateless—data in, response out, nothing building over time. when google announced gemini's gmail integration, people got excited: finally, an AI that knows me! but when they tried it, it was shallow and disappointing and couldn't figure out your spirit animal from your email style, and they moved on.

if you're interested in capturing this value, three things have stood out for me:

gathering, improving, actioning

i think productivity lift from AI use falls into three phases: gathering information, improving it, and actioning on it. most usage today focuses on the middle—you gather data yourself, hand it to the AI to improve, then action on it yourself.

for knowledge work, this makes sense. there's a lot to improve—summarizing, translating, critiquing. but personal AI is different. there's not much to improve; you already know what needs to happen. the lift comes from gathering and actioning.

making calendar events is uninteresting. figuring out when one needs to happen—by monitoring my texts—and then creating it for me? that's interesting.

one place to start: how can you take data from one place and move it to another isolated system? from your text messages to a restaurant booking? from granola meeting notes to a follow-up email?

embrace flexibility

if you're engineer-brained like me, you gravitate towards scripts and playbooks—whatever you can do to constrain the AI and make its behavior predictable. this works, and for high-stakes situations it might be the only way to get comfortable.

but the upside to letting go has been 10x, not 10%. i didn't see that coming. it's the same thing i've heard from people using claude code—you can't understand how much you're leaving on the table until you let go. the whole reason i'm using an LLM and not a traditional script is that it can handle ambiguity, interpret intent, and figure things out on the fly.

early on, i wanted clawdbot to fetch web pages as text only, believing that to be safer (it is). if i'd stuck to that, i would never have discovered it could look through airbnb listing photos to find a place matching my exact criteria ("a pullout bed is okay if it's not in the same room as another bed"). i didn't program that. i just described what i wanted and let it figure out how. not spelling out how i wanted clawdbot to work made it a LOT better.

continuous improvement

a current AI engineering adage: treat AI like a junior software engineer. guide it through building a plan, watch its first attempts carefully, challenge its reasoning.

this applies to clawdbot too, but it requires patience. it's easy to give up on a workflow when you watch it fumble ("let me try clicking this again. didn't work. let me try again.").

resist the urge to write clawdbot off. if you're worried, ask it what it plans to do before it does it and ask for a screenshot when you want to verify it's got the right page open. when an edge case breaks a workflow, treat it as a teaching opportunity. once you've corrected it, it won't make that mistake again.

clawdbot gets meaningfully better the more you use it, and it gets better in a fast, organic way that feels less cumbersome than writing rules for claude code or yelling at any other LLM. it feels much closer to working with a real executive assistant (in part because the clawdbot harness/system prompts are very good), which makes me want to give it more and more responsibility.

how’d you set it up?

(this is a more technical deep dive, for those interested in setting this up themselves.)

i run clawdbot on a mac mini in my home. the mac mini's primary job is running clawdbot and it stays on 24/7. why a mac mini?

  • one of the core use cases is browsing websites and sometimes logging into them. to do this convincingly (without triggering tons of captchas and "is this a new IP?" alerts), clawdbot needs to be opening sites from my home, not the cloud; and it needs to do so in a real google chrome window.
  • many of the ways clawdbot accesses data are mac-only. specifically, clawdbot can read and send iMessages (real blue bubbles!); manage my todo and grocery lists in apple reminders; and use my apple contacts as a source of truth. apple will only let you do these things without getting banned on a real bona fide mac.

i communicate with clawdbot via a private slack workspace. many others have shot themselves in the foot setting it up on whatsapp or telegram (since the bot responds as you to others). slack is great because:

  • it's familiar to me—i've spent over a decade working in and managing slack workspaces.
  • slack supports rich formatting, image attachments, and has a great mobile app.
  • i can create separate channels for different topics. #ai-notifs is only for inbound alerts.
  • i can have several workflows going at once, since each channel's history is isolated. i created #ai-1, #ai-2, #ai-3, and so on—just for multitasking. (i may explore adding my partner at some point, and it'll be easy since slack is, well, meant for multiplayer.)

clawdbot communicates with me by sending slack notifications. behind the scenes it also makes changes to my calendar—moving events around, adding "soft hold" events, sending invites—and manages my apple reminders and notion pages. clawdbot never communicates with others on its own.

i give clawdbot a toolkit of access. the most useful ones have been:

  • my text messages. i conduct a lot of work and daily life over imessage. frustratingly, unlike email, texting has very poor tooling. where my email app automatically pulls up my calendar when it sees dates/times, texting me "call tomorrow 4pm?" does not. when someone sends me a calendar invite, it's both in my inbox and on my calendar; when someone texts me "yep let's do it", neither is true. clawdbot has given me massive lift here. (yes, this also gives clawdbot access to 2FA codes.)
  • my calendar. i also have a shared calendar with my partner; clawdbot sees both.
  • my notion workspace. for me this is a general catch-all for storing and managing information; the apple notes app could also work.
  • web browsing. in a way this is the most important one—it's infinite tools in one. but it's also where the risk concentrates, so i always give clawdbot a starting URL rather than letting it browse freely.

notably, i haven't given clawdbot access to my email—my tooling there is already good enough that i usually do things myself. i’ve also found the ways clawdbot can help here to be cumbersome and limited. i may revisit if i find a killer use case.

things i haven't done

  • i don't allow my clawdbot to access social networking websites (it doesn't read x/twitter, for example). this seems high risk and no reward.
  • i don't give clawdbot access to all my logins. (there's a 1password integration which is... pretty wild.) when i do, i try to use google chrome's native password manager so that clawdbot doesn't need to manage passwords in context directly. (note that it still has access to passwords because it can autofill and then read it off the page, but i've at least added more hoops.)
  • i don't let clawdbot send text messages without my explicit approval, and i've built safeguards in those skills to enforce this.
  • i didn't add my clawdbot to moltbook so it can plot against me at my expense. sorry.

rough edges

  • i use claude opus 4.5. i haven't experimented with cheaper models. my view is that any mistake by the model costs me way more than the premium, so i'd rather stay on the cutting edge than try to optimize for tokens.
  • context management can be annoying. when clawdbot is browsing sites or doing research, context occasionally fills up and gets compacted (older conversation history gets deleted to make room). this always seems to happen at the worst time—right when i'm deep into something and have built up momentum. a frustrating "ugh, i guess this really is just a word predictor" moment. to avoid this i'm constantly starting new sessions, which i wish clawdbot would do for me.
  • clawdbot doesn't know when to give up. its determination is usually a strength, but it lacks the human circuit breaker of "am i trying too hard here?" and sometimes burns through a lot of time/tokens on something a human would have abandoned.
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Economics of Bundling and Unbundling

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  • ECONOMIC STRATEGY: Business revenue generation is historically driven by the complementary processes of bundling and unbundling products.
  • CONSUMER SURPLUS: Bundling multiple products can increase total revenue while simultaneously providing savings to users compared to individual piece-rate pricing.
  • MARGINAL COSTS: Software is uniquely suited for bundling strategies because it possesses a near-zero marginal cost for each additional unit provided.
  • FRICTION REDUCTION: Historically, bundles reduced transaction costs by centralizing installation, though web-based SaaS has shifted this dynamic toward browser access.
  • MARKET DISRUPTION: Large companies often transition from product-centric growth to distribution-centric growth, leaving them vulnerable to specialized startup unbundlers.
  • DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS: Changes in underlying technology, such as the move from desktop operating systems to web browsers, can erode the effectiveness of established distribution monopolies.
  • STRATEGIC MOTIVATIONS: Beyond immediate profit, companies utilize bundling to deter market competition, create loss-leaders, or simplify internal organizational processes.
  • CYCLICAL PATTERNS: The pursuit of market value creates a continuous cycle where unbundlers grow into large entities that eventually re-bundle their offerings.

There are only two ways to make money in business: bundling and unbundling — Jim Barksdale, ex-CEO of Netscape.

There are only three ways to make money in business: bundling, unbundling, and writing about bundling and unbundling — Lenny Rachitsky, author of one of the most popular paid Substack newsletters on product management.

Bundling can make everyone better off, creating surplus for both consumers and producers. Take an example of a word editor and a spreadsheet. A writer is willing to pay ("willingness-to-pay") up to $10/month for a word editor but only $2/mo for a spreadsheet (numbers should be spelled out). An accountant is willing to pay $10/mo for a spreadsheet but only $2/mo for a word editor (who needs to write?).

A big company that produces both a word-editor and spreadsheet can price both products at $10/mo. The writer will purchase the word editor, and the accountant will purchase the spreadsheet (in practice, the price has to be slightly less than the willingness to pay). The company makes $20.

Now assume that the company bundles both products and prices the combined bundle at $11. Both the writer and accountant purchase the bundle since they are willing to pay $12 (valuing their primary product at $10 and the secondary at $2). The company makes $22, and the consumers have a combined surplus of $2 (willing to pay $24, but only had to pay $22).

Bundlers get disrupted by startup unbundlers. Unbundlers grow into big companies, and become bundlers.

Bundles work best for products with low marginal cost, and software has near-zero marginal cost.

Bundled products with high overlapping transaction costs can reduce friction. For example, you install Microsoft Office instead of having to install separate applications. But SaaS and browser-based applications have completely flipped this effect on its head. Now, it's a liability to install desktop applications like Office 365 rather than browse to a web page. There's a limit to the size of desktop application bundles, but SaaS is limitless.

Bundlers get disrupted because of the classic innovators dilemma. As companies grow larger, bundles accumulate. It's easier to stay focused on your core offering and add things to it. Product-centric growth becomes distribution-centric growth.

First time founders are obsessed with product.

Second time founders are obsessed with distribution.

— Justin Kan (@justinkan) November 7, 2018

The problem with distribution is that sometimes the technology shifts beneath you. For example, newspapers and traditional media companies were probably one of the best distribution monopolies in history but now have been almost completely disrupted. Microsoft used to bundle applications on its operating system. Now, as most software is accessed over the internet, through web browsers, the operating system isn't as effective of a distribution mechanism.

In practice, companies don't exactly know the distribution of consumers' willingness-to-pay a priori (in some cases, ever). In practice, products are bundled for other reasons: to prevent competition, to act as a loss-leader to gain some strategic advantage, or to simplify processes as the easiest solution (Occam's Razor). It would be interesting to explore how bundled products affect internal decision-making at companies — coordination costs, friction to splitting out products, software, and team inter-dependencies.

So, you saw that there is a clear economic surplus to both consumers and producers for bundling. But bundling is a double-edged sword for businesses — it opens the company up to strategic weaknesses it wouldn't have had otherwise. Maybe it's the balance of value creation and destruction that keeps us in a cycle of bundling and unbundling.

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On the chronicle of a life wasted

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Realizing what isn’t in the Epstein files takes a while.1

The big names grab attention, especially the tech moguls in the early 2010s. At the time, Epstein hoped to leverage relationships with Bill Gates and Peter Thiel to return to respectability after his 2008 conviction for soliciting underage girls.

References to Donald Trump and Bill Clinton give the files a sheen of importance too, though Epstein’s dealings with both largely ended years before that conviction.

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But search long enough through the millions of documents that the Department of Justice released last week from its investigations of Epstein, and what’s not there eventually becomes clear. (And I don’t mean a Satanic child-eating pedophile ring, though that’s not there either. Let’s stick to reality.)

Epstein’s world was more limited than it seems.

A-list celebrities and athletes and top Hollywood agents are generally absent from the post-2008 files. Media moguls, cable news stars, and big names in journalism and publishing don’t appear much either — unless one counts the odious gossiper Michael Wolff, who happily carried water for Epstein in exchange for scraps about Donald Trump.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden were no friends of Epstein. Nor was George W. Bush. Even Hunter Biden doesn’t come up much. (Hunt was probably too messy for Epstein, who seemingly didn’t like drugs.) The state and local politicians who are constantly glad-handling rich guys like Epstein for money are mostly absent too. The Hamptons invitations? Epstein’s lucky he had his own beach, because he wasn’t getting them.

It’s no wonder that Epstein was so interested in Silicon Valley, where he didn’t live — the elite social settings of New York and Florida were mostly closed to him after 2008, at least publicly.

But by 2014, after a couple of fancy dinners Epstein arranged, the tech moguls start to vanish too. Epstein keeps emailing them, but they stop emailing him back.

What’s left? A relative handful of longtime confidants and friend including some women he helped financially. Some sleazy Middle Eastern sheikhs who had no cultural or moral worries about the way Epstein had treated adolescent girls.

Plus would-be entrepreneurs from (mostly) third-tier tech companies looking for start-up money and academics desperate for research grants. And a handful of late-onset losers like Dr. Peter Attia blinded by Epstein’s townhouse and the young women in it.

In truth, though, Epstein was a loser himself by 2015.

The biggest celebrity in the files is Woody Allen, who turned 80 that year — and was himself a social pariah after Mia Farrow’s allegations that he had sexually abused their adoptive daughter Dylan. Aside from the occasional mention of Jeff Koons, the files are strikingly thin on references to contemporary American culture, high or low. In the unlikely event someone had parachuted in from 1975 and wanted to be an extra on a Woody Allen movie, Epstein could help. But access to Lin-Manuel Miranda or Jay-Z or Taylor Swift? Guess again.

In part, this strange ossification comes because Epstein was so unacquainted with youth culture. (Oh the irony.) But he didn’t have kids of his own, and he wasn’t getting invited to too many sweet sixteens.2 Yes, he could still find needy young women from Eastern Europe — the Nadias and Anastasias and Milas pile up year by year — but they weren’t exactly in the cultural vanguard.

(Woody Allen and Soon-Yi Previn having a great time!)

And after 2014, as the MeToo movement gained force, Epstein’s remaining opportunities slowly faded.

He was still rich, but he was more and more a social pariah. By 2017, he was so frustrated he even considered trying to blackmail some of the billionaires who had helped him accumulate his fortune in happier times. Ultimately, he kept his mouth shut, apparently realizing that doing so would have destroyed the only currency he had left, his reputation for discretion.

So as the 2010s passed, Epstein flew from his townhouse to his island to his ranch and complained about Trump, whose success he could not abide. He never ran out of women — there was always another Russian — but he became more and more isolated as the years passed.

Shed no tears for Epstein. He was a terrible guy, a liar and thief and sociopath who, at a minimum, took advantage of vulnerable teenage girls and paid the lightest possible penalty when he was caught.

But the understandable anger at him and the foolish men (and women) around him, especially those who initially remained in his orbit after 2008, shouldn’t blind us to the reality that the stigma of Epstein’s conviction actually grew over time. He was a dead man tanning, even if it took him a while to realize that fact.

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In fact, the files make the story of Epstein’s suicide more believable.

By the time he was arrested in 2019, he had to know that no one was coming to save him. He had no levers left to pull, and he — like Harvey Weinstein — would likely spend most of the rest of his life in prison.

And so he wrapped a rope around his neck and took the coward’s way out.

1

No, this isn’t the big story. Still working on that.

2

One notable exception came when an old friend of Epstein’s, Eva Dubin, told him in 2010 he should “visit next week” when her 15-year-old daughter would have “5 friends over.” Epstein declined, responding that he was out of town.

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The Limits of Russian Power // Why Putin isn’t thriving in Trump’s anarchic world.

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  • Prewar status: Russia entered 2022 with broad partnerships, limited adversaries, and influence beyond its neighborhood, making it a flexible global actor.
  • Post-invasion shift: After invading Ukraine, Russia lost European influence, became dependent on China, and saw its military capacity consumed by the war amid poor battlefield results.
  • Strategic adaptation: Facing sanctions, Moscow turned to intermediaries, discount oil sales to India, shadow shipping, and deeper ties with China to counter Western pressure.
  • Regional influence waning: Russia’s ability to protect partners diminished as allies fell, peacekeepers failed to stop Azerbaijani advances, and rebels toppled Assad despite Russian efforts.
  • Trump’s impact: Despite expectations, Trump’s presidency has highlighted Russia’s inability to project power beyond Ukraine while the U.S. takes new regional initiatives and maintains support for Kyiv.
  • Persistent influence: Moscow still holds sway in parts of the Middle East and Africa, relies on China and North Korea, and benefits from transatlantic tensions, but gains have not materialized.
  • Putin’s focus on Ukraine: Putin remains committed to the war, reoriented Russia’s economy, threatens escalation, and may attack supply routes or satellites while Europe increases pressure on Russian shipping.
  • Policy recommendation: Europe should bolster Ukraine and prepare for escalation, avoiding rushed peace talks while leveraging transatlantic power to constrain a Russia disadvantaged by global disorder.

On the eve of invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia enjoyed a decent global position. It had a strong partnership with China; extensive economic ties with Europe; a working relationship, however fraught, with the United States; and an informal network of partners with which to do business. Russia dominated few countries (other than Belarus) but also had few real enemies and could exercise influence beyond its neighborhood. More than a rising or declining power, Russia was a protean power.

Then Russia invaded Ukraine. In response, Europe and the United States immediately became Moscow’s adversaries. The Kremlin, having lost much of its diplomatic influence in Europe, became much more reliant on China. The war, meanwhile, has absorbed Russia’s attention and virtually all of its military capacity, making it hard for Moscow to steer events farther afield. As a result, the Kremlin could do little as some of its allies, including Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, fell. The war itself has not gone particularly well, either. After four years of fighting, Ukraine remains in control of roughly 80 percent of its territory.

But Moscow is hardly prepared to cut its losses. Unless U.S. President Donald Trump can persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the fighting—an unlikely scenario—Russia will probably try harder to subjugate Ukraine, not because the battlefield decisively favors Moscow but because Putin needs to hold the line somewhere. He is poised to respond to Russia’s geopolitical limits by recommitting to its war. The humanitarian catastrophe he has already inflicted on Ukraine, depriving it of heating and electricity amid freezing conditions, may soon get even worse.

ON THE SIDELINES

Putin has long overestimated what Russian hard power alone can achieve. This problem first manifested itself in Ukraine in 2014. Having incited a revolution, Viktor Yanukovych—Ukraine’s president from 2010 to 2013 and a Kremlin ally—fled the country. Putin could have responded to Yanukovych’s ouster by cooperating with Yanukovych’s successors. Instead, he opted for military force, invading Crimea in Ukraine’s south and the Donbas in its east. Russia seized the former and established two breakaway regions in the latter, but in the process it inadvertently undermined organic pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. After 2014, Kyiv strengthened ties with Washington and Europe, which is exactly what Putin was hoping to prevent. In 2022, the limits of Russian hard power became even more evident. Although large military forces invaded Ukraine from several directions, they could not take its three largest cities, including the capital, and were soon pushed back along multiple axes. The Kremlin, which had banked on a quick and total victory, was stuck in a long slog.

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Ukraine’s successful resistance forced Russia to adapt its foreign policy. To evade export controls, Moscow procured restricted goods through intermediaries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. It started selling much more oil to India, often at steep discounts. To sidestep U.S. and European energy sanctions, Russia cobbled together a “shadow fleet”—a mass of aging tankers that typically carry bogus insurance and use opaque business structures to hide their true owners. China became Russia’s primary source of industrial goods and the biggest buyer of its fossil fuels. For Moscow, the decision to forge deeper relations with China was practical as well as strategic. The Kremlin hoped to lead the so-called global South with Beijing and to accelerate the decline of the West. Whereas China can use its massive economic clout to win favor in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, Russia can capitalize on its skills in subversion and on the former Soviet Union’s positive reputation in parts of the postcolonial world.

After years of hedging in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, Russia began favoring Iran and its anti-Western partners in 2022. It tightened defense cooperation with the Islamic Republic over Israel’s protestations. On several occasions in 2024, Putin rolled out the red carpet in Moscow for representatives of Hamas and the Houthis. Russia’s relationship with Israel did not fully unravel—the two sides continued to coordinate their military activities to avoid clashes in Syria, for instance—but it frayed considerably.

These shifts masked a more negative and enduring reality for the Kremlin. Russia had lost much of its capacity to protect its partners and its interests beyond Ukraine. In 2023, Russian peacekeepers stood by as Azerbaijan seized the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, Russia’s traditional ally. As Israel fought and weakened the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and even Iran itself, Russia watched from the sidelines. Russia was once again a bystander when, in December 2024, local rebels swept away the Assad regime in Syria, a dynasty Moscow had been fighting for years to preserve.

TRUMP BUMP OR SLUMP?

In 2024, the Kremlin celebrated Trump’s reelection. At the start of Trump’s second term, many observers predicted that his disdain for international law, apparent embrace of spheres of influence, and affinity for what Russia calls traditional values (such as an aversion to LGBT rights) would advantage Moscow. That has not been the case. Now that the United States has embraced revisionism, Russia’s inability to project power beyond Ukraine has become more obvious. In the summer of 2025, the United States joined Israel in the air campaign that damaged Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. In January, Trump extracted Maduro in a sleek, overnight military operation that Putin could only dream of. For all his complaints about Kyiv, the U.S. president has yet to abandon Ukraine, although he has been less generous with assistance than was President Joe Biden.

Trump has also repeatedly taken the initiative in Russia’s backyard. He has showered Central Asian leaders with attention and deemed himself the mediator in chief between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In January, the United States and Armenia announced an implementation framework for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a trade corridor in the South Caucasus. Trump has also invited Russia to join his Board of Peace, a new conflict-settlement body, without granting Russia special status. Trump expects Putin to defer to his leadership role.

Putin is not in the mood to make concessions.

Russia is hardly out the picture regionally or globally. Moscow retains influence in the Middle East and has increased its clout in western Africa by deploying its Africa Corps, a paramilitary group, on behalf of Sahelian juntas. Russia does not rely on Iranian or Venezuelan support to prosecute its war against Ukraine. China and North Korea remain committed partners, and Russian state media has been celebrating Trump’s degradation of the transatlantic alliance, most recently with his threats to take Greenland.

But Moscow has yet to gain any advantages from the tensions between Washington and European capitals. Europe is increasing its own support for Ukraine, and NATO remains a functioning institution with which Russia must reckon. Putin cannot assume that Trump’s foreign-policy adventurism will be confined to the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. It could easily and suddenly make itself felt on Russia’s doorstep. 2025 was a bad year for Russia, and 2026 may be even worse. Moscow’s global position is ebbing because of Trump.

PUTIN’S WHITE WHALE

As Russia struggles to assert itself globally, Putin has become even more obsessed with Ukraine. The situation on the battlefield is sustainable for Moscow. Russia’s frontlines are holding, and its forces are making gradual territorial progress, but Moscow is far from winning. Despite the flurry of Ukraine-related diplomacy, peace talks have gone nowhere. Trump’s position on the war continues to oscillate. Meanwhile, Europe is discovering its agency and will not tolerate a peace plan tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender. Assisted by Europe, Kyiv will refuse to yield preemptively to Russia.

However miserable the conflict is for Russia, Putin is not in the mood to make concessions. He has reoriented the economy and structured global relationships to fight this war, which has already lasted longer than the Soviet campaign against Nazi Germany. Aware that the war’s outcome will be the ultimate referendum on his presidency, he may even consider escalating, including beyond Ukraine’s borders. In January, following claims that European countries had made progress on agreeing to security guarantees for Kyiv, Russia fired a type of ballistic missile at Ukraine that is nuclear-capable and has a range that violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the United States quit in 2019. The missile landed 40 miles away from the Polish border.

The war may well be entering a more dangerous phase. Inspired, perhaps, by Trump’s seizure of tankers linked to Russia in the Caribbean and North Atlantic, European countries are doing more to harass Russia’s shadow fleet, which is already under attack from Ukrainian drones. Russia might escalate by striking Ukraine’s supply routes in eastern Europe or by attacking the U.S.-owned satellites that provide targeting information to Kyiv. Putin may push harder to make Ukraine uninhabitable—to impose financial burdens on its supporters and to threaten further refugee flows into Europe—even if he can’t win.

Though Europe and the United States would be wise to re-establish a coordinated process for handling the war, transatlantic friction will likely hinder such efforts. Europe should therefore step up its support for Kyiv, while readying itself for Russian escalation in and around Ukraine. Most important, U.S. and European leaders should not rush any talks to end the conflict. They must keep in mind the power their countries hold. Russia is neither invincible nor surging ahead. It is merely one of many countries disadvantaged by the anarchic world order Trump has unleashed in his second term.

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