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It's time for transparent pricing in medicine

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Price Transparency Requirement: mandatory disclosure of medical costs for procedures and drugs functions as the touted solution to industry opacity.
  • Market Distortion Claims: current financial structures mask true service value causing patients to irrationally overconsume medical treatments.
  • Profit Motive Reality: administrative and hospital decisions prioritize institutional gain over clinical necessity regardless of external narratives.
  • Consumer Agency Restoration: shifting toward direct cash payments for routine care is presented as a method to empower users against industry giants.
  • Cartel Behavior Accusations: the lack of competitive pricing is framed as a deliberate tactic to shield providers from market forces.
  • Chronic Systemic Complexity: institutional survival depends on an incomprehensible web of regulations that marginalizes independent medical practitioners.
  • Regulatory Capture Fears: large corporate entities thrive on the instability and complexity that smaller participants are unable to navigate.
  • Theoretical Reform Viability: simple policy changes are proposed as a fragile potential wedge against an otherwise monolithic and entrenched healthcare bureaucracy.

No surprise, Sunday’s article about 10 possible fixes for American healthcare sparked lots of reader suggestions, from minor to radical. I may run a second list with your ideas (or host a chat to discuss the issue).

But I was struck by how many of you pushed one seemingly simple change: requiring open pricing for medical procedures, services, and drugs whenever possible. This suggestion came up more than any other, even restricting drug advertising.

I agree. Open pricing may seem like a small change, but in fact it would have major philosophical and practical benefits.

(I’m committed to transparent pricing for Unreported Truths! Click to see!)

Our $5 trillion system encourages consumers, aka patients, to think of care as free — while setting up a maze of hidden financial incentives and honeypots that providers and administrators spend huge amounts of time navigating and fighting over.

Pretending medicine isn’t about money hasn’t made medicine less about money. It has just distorted the system in deeply destructive ways.

Even if doctors do not let financial incentives drive treatment decisions for individual patients (and some clearly do), profit drives every structural decision in American medicine, from where hospitals open satellite clinics to the drugs pharmacy benefits managers push to how quickly patients are discharged.

The list is endless.

Yet at the most crucial point of contact, we simply hide the price of treatments. Among other distortions, this fiction encourages patients to overconsume medical services. We implicitly assume we do not need to discourage people from seeking out healthcare. We imagine most healthy people will not go to doctors if they do not have to, so we do not have to regulate access to care.

But in the United States in 2026, that assumption no longer seems to hold.

We have an ever-increasing number of chronic conditions, often driven by unhealthy lifestyle choices, as well "sort-of" diseases with a strong psychosocial component. Drug company advertising fuels patient demand for the costliest possible treatments for all these conditions. (To a lesser extent, so does hospital and physician group advertising.) Under the circumstances, even completely healthy people may feel almost compelled to use the system, if only because they pay so much into it and get nothing back.

Meanwhile, the lack of open pricing discourages competition on price (obviously). This cartel-like behavior is particularly harmful because many procedures, particularly imaging and blood testing, have very low marginal costs. And routine imaging doesn’t always require expensive new equipment. Cheaper, older machines can deliver more than adequate results.1

In other words, independent providers may have more flexibility on price than patients (or even they) realize, especially for cash payors where insurance overhead isn’t a major cost.

As one reader wrote:

An absolutely crucial fact--that almost no one with conventional insurance even realizes--is that most day-to-day, routine medical tests, procedures, and drugs are very inexpensive. That's especially so in markets like Las Vegas, where I live, where there are many cash-pay customers. A chest X-ray is $23; a standard MRI is about $125; I had a CT scan 2 weeks ago that cost $103…

Of course, there are any number of conditions, medical emergencies, and specialized drugs that are astronomically expensive--that's why we all need some form of catastrophic insurance. But for the day-to-day, routine stuff, the less any 3rd party (insurance company, employer's benefits manager, government, hospital corporation) is involved, the better off everyone is.

Try a one-time donation!

It’ll save you money in the long run once we fix medicine!

And so we should require transparent pricing for a broad array of routine services — in doctors’ offices, in outpatient and urgent care facilities, in testing labs, even in hospitals where possible. Doing so will encourage price competition. It may also convince some people to start paying for routine services themselves and switch to higher-deductible insurance plans.

Most importantly, it will encourage people to think of routine medical care as simply another service — and help restore their agency over not just health, but the healthcare they consume.

Another reader put the problem — and the solution — in a larger context:

The core problem in American healthcare is not simply cost. It is complexity, and more importantly, the velocity of complexity.

Rules, reimbursement structures, compliance requirements, coding systems, network rules, and incentive structures change so rapidly that only very large institutions can realistically keep up. Hospitals, insurers, private equity groups, pharmaceutical companies, and large regulatory/compliance infrastructures adapt because they have armies of administrators and lawyers. Independent physicians and patients cannot.

That instability itself becomes a mechanism of control.

Direct physician-patient relationships, transparent pricing, and simple market feedback become harder and harder to sustain because the system is constantly shifting underneath everyone. The result is opacity. And opacity is where fraud, waste, abuse, and rent-seeking thrive.

The public can understand simple ideas:

* transparent pricing,

* aligned incentives,

* direct accountability,

* same rules for everyone,

* and reducing unnecessary intermediaries.

Implementing four out of those five suggestions would require massive structural changes that are essentially politically impossible in the current system.

But transparent pricing? That’s hard to argue against. That’s at least theoretically possible.

And maybe moving towards it will eventually help drive the rest.

1

As one reader wrote: I broke my foot and my insurance was billed almost $6K for the no contrast CT scan. I think the surgery with everything - anesthesia, doctor, titanium screws, etc. - was about $8K total and used techniques not available 10-15 years ago. CTs have been around since 1971 - over half a century. Utter BS.

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Spencer ‘Pratt Pack’ uncovers disturbing new mystery on Skid Row // A Spencer Pratt volunteer team made a startling discovery in Skid Row on Sunday: Ballots were everywhere, but almost nobody claimed they actually voted.

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  • Voter Registration Concerns: Volunteers in Los Angeles found a significant disparity between the number of mail-in ballots sent to individuals on Skid Row and the actual number of residents who recall casting those ballots.
  • Investigation Scope: Public records analysis identifies over 7,600 voter registrations linked to non-residential locations, including shelters, supportive housing, and addiction treatment centers.
  • Illegal Activities Alleged: Reports from local residents indicate that individuals have been offered cash or other incentives by third-party petition circulators in exchange for registering to vote.
  • Documented Criminal Charges: Federal prosecutors have charged a Marina del Rey woman with paying individuals, including homeless persons, to register to vote in connection with past petition collection activities.
  • Resident Testimony: Multiple residents contacted during outreach efforts stated they completed registration forms facilitated by canvassers but lacked any recollection of participating in an actual election.
  • Election Integrity Questions: The findings have raised questions regarding the chain of custody for mail-in ballots and the validity of large-scale registration drives conducted within transient populations.

","

A Spencer Pratt volunteer team has claimed they found lots of ballots were sent out on Skid Row – but few there actually voted in the Los Angeles mayoral race.

The California Post joined four members of the “Pratt Pack” on Sunday as they spent hours touring the run-down neighborhood.

Former California State Senate candidate Susan Collins interviews a resident on Skid Row. Rafael Fontoura for CA PostMichael Barnett being interviewed while waiting in line for food and clothes on Skid Row. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post

They asked dozens of locals about voter registration, mail-in ballots and the petition gatherers who have worked the district for years trying to get them to vote.

It comes just a week after Pratt was dumped out of the race for mayor after Karen Bass won and Nithya Raman received a huge pile of mail-in ballots that saw her dramatically overtake him.

Susan Collins, a former California State Senate candidate who was part of the “Pratt Pack” on Sunday, told The Post: “What we’re finding is a lot of people being registered to vote, a lot of ballots being sent out, and nobody actually voted.”

Volunteers with Spencer Pratt’s election team spent several hours speaking with homeless residents throughout Skid Row about their experiences with voter registration drives. Rafael Fontoura for CA PostAn election worker processes mail-in ballots for the California state primary election at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center in City of Industry. Getty Images

The California Post’s own investigation uncovered thousands of voter registrations.

A review of public records identified more than 7,600 registered voters linked to shelters, supportive housing projects, addiction treatment centers and social service agencies, including 1,160 registrations connected to the Midnight Mission in Skid Row.

One longtime local told volunteers on Sunday he personally knew the Marina del Rey woman recently charged by federal prosecutors with paying homeless people to register to vote.

Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong, known as “Anika,” was charged in May with paying another person to register to vote.

Skid Row is home to one of the largest concentrations of homeless residents in the United States. Rafael Fontoura for CA PostHomeless residents gather outside a service provider in Skid Row, where thousands of people rely on shelters, meal programs and outreach services each year. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post

According to federal prosecutors, Armstrong worked for years as a paid petition circulator collecting signatures for California ballot measures and has agreed to plead guilty.

“She was right at this corner. This was her area,” Thadeus Brown told volunteers. Brown claimed people were routinely offered money or cigarettes to sign forms.

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“She’d give them $3 to $5. Some of the cheap people give them $2 and a cigarette,” he alleged. But Brown’s account echoed a theme volunteers said surfaced again and again throughout the day: residents remembered registering to vote.

They remembered petition gatherers. What many didn’t remember was actually casting a ballot.

Homeless residents gather in Skid Row, an area that has become the focus of questions surrounding voter registration drives and ballot distribution. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post

The volunteers moved through tents, shelters, service centers and sidewalk encampments, interviewing people residents about their experiences with the drives.

“A lot of people never voted,” Brown said. “They did register, but they just wanted the names.”

Questions continue surrounding voter registrations linked to shelters, service providers and homeless communities. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post

For Collins, who has spent years raising concerns about ballot collection practices, the most striking part of Sunday’s visit was hearing the same story repeated block after block.

“So what I’ve been hearing from a lot of people is that they registered to vote,” Collins said. “I have not found anybody that has actually voted.”

Members of the Pratt Pack fan out across Skid Row, interviewing residents about ballots, voter registrations and election-related outreach. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post

“The big question now is what happened to all those ballots,” Collins said. “People remember getting them. They don’t remember voting. So where did the ballots go?”

Ann Juliano, who was visiting Skid Row for the first time, described the experience as eye-opening and said it strengthened her determination to stay involved rather than watch from afar.

“It was really intense,” Juliano said. “We saw a guy chasing another guy with a shovel and attacking him.”

A Skid Row resident shares his experiences during a Sunday outreach effort. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post

Juliano said she came to Skid Row looking for answers, convinced there was more to the election story than voters were being told.

“I guess being here is part of trying to figure out what happened. The numbers just don’t make sense. That’s why I’m digging deeper instead of sitting on the sidelines.”

What do you think? Post a comment.

“One thing I would like to say is that I think this election has forever changed Los Angeles,” she said. “At least that’s my hope, that people will feel empowered to keep talking about the truth and keep looking for the truth.”

","
Former California State Senate candidate Susan Collins interviews a resident on Skid Row.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
Michael Barnett being interviewed while waiting in line for food and clothes on Skid Row.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
Volunteers with Spencer Pratt's election team spent several hours speaking with homeless residents throughout Skid Row about their experiences with voter registration drives.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
An election worker processes mail-in ballots for the California state primary election at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center in City of Industry.Getty Images
Skid Row is home to one of the largest concentrations of homeless residents in the United States. Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
Homeless residents gather outside a service provider in Skid Row, where thousands of people rely on shelters, meal programs and outreach services each year.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
Homeless residents gather in Skid Row, an area that has become the focus of questions surrounding voter registration drives and ballot distribution.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
Questions continue surrounding voter registrations linked to shelters, service providers and homeless communities.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
Members of the Pratt Pack fan out across Skid Row, interviewing residents about ballots, voter registrations and election-related outreach.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
A Skid Row resident shares his experiences during a Sunday outreach effort.Rafael Fontoura for CA Post
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10 ways to save American healthcare! - by Alex Berenson

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Monopoly Regulation: dismantle regional and academic hospital systems by enforcing strict limits on local market concentration
  • Executive Compensation: impose windfall salary taxes on executives at nonprofit hospital systems to align incentives with charitable missions
  • Vaccination Reform: transition to the danish vaccine schedule while ending universal hepatitis b shots at birth
  • Pharmaceutical Accountability: eliminate corporate profit incentives for drugs lacking proof of clinical benefit and require rigorous data reporting
  • Surgical Validation: allocate funding for placebo controlled clinical trials to verify the necessity of common minor surgeries
  • Research Restrictions: establish an international agreement to criminalize gain of function research involving dangerous pathogens
  • Insurance Limitations: restrict coverage for mental health and drug rehabilitation services unless supported by randomized controlled trial evidence
  • Catastrophic Coverage: authorize the market entry of inexpensive high deductible insurance policies to emphasize major medical risk protection

First things first: One week to Father’s Day. I’ll have more to say about THE FATHERHOOD MANIFESTO soon. Your emails have been very supportive, and the great reviews keep pouring in on Amazon.

So don’t wait. Get your copy now, in time for Father’s Day!

American medicine is a $5 trillion mess that eats anyone who tries to fix it (the knives are now out for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.).

But our healthcare doesn’t have to be this bad. I woke up thinking of 10 ways to improve it. (Yes, this is actually what I woke up this Sunday morning thinking about. I know, I need more hobbies.)

The first two are probably the most popular politically — and the least likely ever to go anywhere. But even the simplest of these would face huge political and economic obstacles. Still, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try for them.

(Unreported Truths doesn’t take weekends off. Please support it!)

So, without further ado, here are 10 changes I’d make to the healthcare leviathan if I were in charge:

1: Break up local health care monopolies and oligopolies, particularly the “nonprofit” regional and academic hospital systems that have grown spiderwebs around nearly every metro area. Set strict limits on local concentration, recognizing that nearly all health care is delivered locally.

2: Set windfall salary taxes on executives at those systems. These hospitals pay no taxes. They are supposed to serve the public interest, not their executives. If they want to receive the benefits of ordinary charities, they should run like charities.

3: Move to the Danish vaccine schedule for children. Most importantly, end the recommendation for universal Hepatitis B shots at birth. Vaccinations are not public health theater and shouldn’t be treated that way. If a child isn’t at reasonable risk for contracting an illness she shouldn’t have to be vaccinated against it because other children are.

4: Prevent pharmaceutical companies from profiting from any medicine sold under the Food and Drug Administration’s “accelerated approval” program — that is, without proof of clinical benefit. In general, I think accelerated approval is a mistake. “Surrogate endpoints” like changes in the amount of protein a cell produces may or may not actually help a patient feel better or live longer, the changes that actually matter.

But if we are going to allow accelerated approvals, we have to force drug companies to follow through by producing real data proving those benefits. And pharma companies have shown they will drag their feet as long as they are making money from a drug sold under the accelerated program.

5: Begin a long-term program of funding placebo-controlled clinical trials to determine if common minor surgeries are helpful compared to rehabilitation, rest, and waiting. It’s more than surgery for meniscal tears — many surgeries have much weaker clinical evidence than people realize.

6: End all gain-of-function research designed to increase viral or bacteria transmissibility or dangerousness. Propose an international agreement making all such research a crime against humanity. Covid proved the risks of such research.

Beyond that, Covid revealed the fatal flaws in the theory (propounded by virologists, of course) that virologists need to run such research to determine the dangers of newly emerging viruses. After all, they didn’t predict Covid, or any of the evolutionary pathways it took. We cannot predict how pathogens will evolve in the wild, only respond to them when they do.

Setting a bright line on this issue is particularly important at a time when artificial intelligence tools may give private and non-state researchers a greater ability to pursue gain-of-function research.

If such research must be conducted at all, it should be run in a handful of government-run labs worldwide — no more than one in any country — that are internationally supervised.

Like these ideas? Consider a one-time donation to Unreported Truths! Don’t like them? Donate anyway!

7: End insurance parity between mental health and physical health conditions (except for psychiatric drug treatments that have randomized controlled trial evidence supporting them). I know this one will be very controversial with many of you.

But we have next to no evidence that mental health care works, and the nebulousness of these conditions allows the creation of expensive honeypots like autism behavioral therapy.

8: At a minimum, sharply cut back on drug addiction rehab coverage, which is incredibly expensive, fails to reduce addiction or relapse when it is tested, and actually encourages unscrupulous operators and companies to recycle addicts through programs to survive. Insurance companies should be required to provide one 30- to 60-day rehab every five years; after that the addict or his family is responsible for covering the cost.

9: Allow insurance companies to create and sell inexpensive, high-deductible health insurance products — true catastrophic insurance. This would return health insurance to its roots and make it more like other insurance products; your home insurance covers serious damage to your house, not fixing a faucet.

10: End medical aid in dying programs. When a patient has days or weeks left with a terminal illness, the difference between pain control and hastening life’s end can be impossible to distinguish. (Even then, physicians should be cautious.) Outside of that boundary, doctors should not be in the euthanasia business. The experience of Canada, Belgium, and other countries shows these programs inevitably metastasize.

If people are too afraid to kill themselves to do so without a doctor’s help to make the process effortless and painless, they probably shouldn’t be killing themselves. And doctors — who are in the business of healing —- should not be helping them.

(Whew! That was 10! Reward yourself for getting to the end with a subscription.)

So. At least for today, Those are my Top 10 American Healthcare Fixes (TM).

Looking forward to hearing what you think of them — and your own suggestions.

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Anthropic Mythos Ban Shows AI Needs an Expert Board

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Government intervention: the state ordered the withdrawal of anthropic model fable and mythos citing national security concerns
  • Restrictive access: current regulations prohibit foreign nationals including company engineers from using the affected artificial intelligence tools
  • Technical justification: findings suggest the models helped identify software flaws which experts assert serves defensive security purposes
  • Historical comparison: experts compare these actions to nineties regulation of encryption software which eventually failed to contain global technological spread
  • Competitive impact: industry analysts argue that restrictive controls handicap legitimate domestic firms while failing to stop technological advancement
  • Regulatory scrutiny: anthropic previously advocated for clear processes but criticized the recent order for lacking transparency and substantive evidence
  • Administrative authority: critics challenge the reliance on opaque political directives rather than standardized technical verification boards
  • Proposed reform: a structure using independent researchers and lawyers could provide the constitutional oversight required for technology regulation


"It's a complete overreaction," Katie Moussouris said of the order that pulled Anthropic's two most capable AI models off the market on Friday. Moussouris, chief executive of the security firm Luta Security, had read the report the government acted on. Citing national security, the United States told Anthropic to cut off Fable 5 and Mythos 5 to every foreign national on earth, including the company's own foreign-born engineers, and to comply the company shut the models off for everyone.

The triggering finding is narrow. A researcher prompted Fable to read a codebase and patch its software flaws, the daily work of the people who defend networks for a living. Moussouris told the Wall Street Journal that the model's output would be of more use to defenders than to attackers, "exactly the kind of prompting that defenders would do." Anthropic says rival public models, OpenAI's GPT-5.5 among them, surface the same minor bugs with no jailbreak at all.

The quarrel behind the order is not new. The Pentagon branded Anthropic a supply-chain risk in March, advisers including David Sacks accused the company of "fear-mongering" and regulatory capture, and officials had pressed it to delay these very models. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's letter arrived on a Friday evening, days before an expected public offering that values Anthropic at $965 billion. Dean Ball, who advised the previous Trump White House on AI, called the order "baffling" and warned that "you should expect to have to prove your citizenship to use Anthropic models."

ITAR and the PGP years.

We have run this experiment before. In the 1990s the government classified strong encryption as a munition under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations and investigated the programmer Phil Zimmermann for letting PGP loose on the internet. The export rules treated mathematics as ordnance, and they failed for a plain reason: the math was already abroad, so the controls handicapped American firms while the capability spread anyway. In 1999 a federal appeals court ruled in Bernstein v. United States that source code is protected speech, and the munitions theory of cryptography collapsed within a year. Peter Girnus, a threat researcher at the Zero Day Initiative, drew the same line to Business Insider, noting that this time "the munition is in the building and the people who made it are not allowed to look at it."

The rule Anthropic asked for.

Anthropic spent the spring arguing for the exact power Washington just used, with one condition on it. In its Policy on the AI Exponential, the company wrote that government should be able to block unsafe deployments through a process that is "transparent, fair, clear, and grounded in technical facts." A letter that withholds its evidence, offers only verbal proof of a narrow jailbreak, and locks out a company's own engineers meets none of those conditions. Recalling a model "deployed to hundreds of millions of people" over a finding this thin, Anthropic argued, "would essentially halt all new model deployments for all frontier model providers."

Make them show their work.

The honest position is not that models are harmless. Some may not be, and the state should be able to halt a genuinely dangerous one. The open question is who decides, and on what evidence. The Pentagon's chief information officer, Kirsten Davies, gave her answer on X: "Some things are simply more important than revenue cycles, clickbait, and pre-IPO valuation. America First. Always." That is a political standard, set by an antagonist in an ongoing fight.

A standing board would answer on different ground.

Seat AI researchers, security scientists, ethicists, and constitutional lawyers on it, wall it off from the administration of the day, and swear its members to the Constitution rather than to any Secretary. Give it the evidence in writing and let it rule in the open, on the technical record, with reasons a court could read. A body like that could still have pulled Fable, had the facts demanded it. The country would know why.

The government may take a tool away from the world. It should at least have to show its work.

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Marcus Schuler

Marcus Schuler

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Editor-in-Chief and founder of Implicator.ai. Former ARD correspondent and senior broadcast journalist with 10+ years covering tech. Writes daily briefings on policy and market developments. Based in San Francisco. E-mail: <a href="mailto:editor@implicator.ai">editor@implicator.ai</a>

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The U.S. Military Quietly Turned GPS Into a Global ‘Numbers Station,’ Evidence Suggests

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507) summary:

  • Military infrastructure: the us military utilizes public gps satellites to broadcast encrypted data globally
  • Secret communication: satellites function as clandestine numbers stations to transmit sensitive cryptographic keys
  • Hidden channel: investigators identified a specific sequence known as subframe 4 page 17 as the source of transmission
  • Operational method: the over the air distribution system enables remote delivery of security keys to military field hardware
  • Data discovery: analysis of twelve million gps observations confirms the patterns align with declassified military deployment timelines
  • Technical shift: system updates observed in recent years suggest possible infrastructure modernization or new communication protocols
  • Ubiquitous access: every gps enabled device currently receives these transmissions despite a lack of public awareness
  • Research approach: open source archives provide sufficient information for external experts to monitor government signaling activities

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The U.S. military has likely been quietly broadcasting codes for its global encryption network using public GPS for nearly 20 years, turning each satellite into a hidden “numbers station,” according to Steven Murdoch, an information security expert, who detailed his findings in a new article in Inside GNSS.

That means every device that uses GPS has been receiving hidden government information for years, and nobody outside the military knew it until now. 

Murdoch, a professor of security engineering and head of the Information Security Research Group at University College London, presented evidence that a 176-bit GPS sequence labelled “Subframe 4, Page 17” is encrypted material from the Pentagon’s Over-the-Air Distribution (OTAD) network, which delivers cryptographic keys to military personnel around the world.

“I think the evidence that it's for key transmission—for use in distributing the keys for accessing the military GPS signals—is pretty strong now,” Murdoch said in a call with 404 Media. He noted that the military has “specialized receivers that have the ability to have keys loaded into them” and “presumably have the ability to decrypt these special messages.”

In his new article, Murdoch described how this “forgotten 176-bit slot in the world’s most successful navigation signal turned out to be its quietest and most consequential broadcast.”

Murdoch first spotted the sequence more than a decade ago while he was a graduate student tasked with writing a decoder for raw GPS data while working on a project funded by the European Space Agency.

“I noticed that there was this random-looking data present in the subframe,” he recalled. “I looked at the specification, and thought that was a little bit unusual. I recorded a bunch of it to look for any obvious patterns, but that wasn't the main role of the project, so we moved on.”

From the beginning, he suspected that the subframe field contained encrypted transmissions because the data was so random. “Random data is actually very unusual to get in nature,” Murdoch said. “If you see it, either it's been carefully designed to be random—but then, why is someone sending out random data?—or it's encrypted data. I thought encrypted data is by far the most likely explanation.”

He returned to the subframe on and off over the years, and solicited guesses about its content on Stack Exchange in 2023. Ahmed Kamruddin, a master’s student at UCL, developed the project further in 2025. Then, this year, Murdoch put the last pieces of the puzzle together over several weeks by analyzing open archive Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) recordings collected since 2007 and kept by GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences.  

This dataset included more than 12 million observations of Subframe 4, Page 17, yielding 3,994 unique 176-bit messages. Within this corpus, Murdoch pinpointed key-repeating “sentinels” including a pattern that appeared in February 2010 and was broadcast on and off across dozens of satellites for more than a decade. 

Murdoch discovered that this particular sentinel was transmitted by all 31 operational satellites within a window of a few hours on May 26, 2011, potentially heralding the activation of a new operational system. He confirmed that this timeline coincided with the rollout of the military’s Over-the-Air Distribution (OTAD) and the Over-the-Air Rekeying (OTAR) by cross-referencing declassified documents, including a 2015 presentation about the dates of the operation. 

“There was a perfect match between the timeline and that presentation and the change points that were automatically identified from the data,” Murdoch said. “That was the smoking gun that made me think: This is what it's for.”

These automated systems replaced the cumbersome manual distribution of cryptographic keying material, allowing military GPS receivers around the world to be rekeyed remotely through satellite broadcasts rather than through onsite procedures.

For the next 11 years, this expansive rekeying operation was overlooked in public GPS data. In 2022, the system entered a new phase, according to Murdoch’s analysis. The shift was characterized by a slowing in the message rotation rate. Later, in December 2023, broadcasts carrying a distinctive "TEXT" prefix emerged then gradually spread across the constellation.

Murdoch isn’t sure what explains the recent transition, though it could be a possible modernization of the infrastructure or the introduction of a new protocol. But to him, the bigger takeaway is that the signals were always available for anyone willing to take a closer look, a discovery that suggests that there could be more revelations hidden for the cryptographically curious among us.

“Every receiver in the world decodes Subframe 4, Page 17,” Murdoch said in his new article. “Almost none of them have ever looked at it. The lesson generalizes: There is more to learn from the bytes already arriving at our antennas than from the bytes we wish were specified differently. The data are publicly available. The signal is overhead, twice a day, every day.” 

“Every GPS satellite is a numbers station,” he concluded. “The receivers were always listening. We just had not been.”   

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Substack has lost its way

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Back in the day — and by back in the day, I mean about four years ago — being on Substack meant something.

It meant you gave people news or analysis the legacy media didn’t. Often, it meant you didn’t have a media background at all. You had a day job, and a point of view you wanted to share, because the media wasn’t.

It meant you viewed your job on Substack as being a writer first and foremost, not a podcaster or an influencer or a YouTuber or a television personality.

It meant you appreciated, and maybe needed, Substack’s commitment to free speech and hosting for unpopular (usually meaning conservative) views.

And it meant you had a voice distinctive enough to survive on your own, without a media company’s help.

Now? Not so much.

(Help me Make Substack Great Again)

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Substack ranks its most popular newsletters on “leaderboards.” (Unreported Truths is currently #5 on “Health Politics,” just after Dr. Joseph Mercola.) The most important leaderboard is “U.S. Politics,” which has by far the most “purple-check” accounts, those with over 10,000 paid subscribers.

The top “U.S. Politics” account is The Free Press, from Bari Weiss, an independent-to-conservative outlet that is undoubtedly the platform’s biggest success story.

But the next eight biggest U.S. Politics accounts now fall on the liberal/woke/progressive spectrum (including “The Bulwark,” which calls itself centrist but in fact suffers from terminal Trump Derangement Syndrome — its lead “story” today has the sarcastic headline Trump Mentals Strong. Like Nothing You’ve Ever Seen. Vietnam.)

Nate Silver, a truly independent voice, ranks tenth. Then the leftist chorus continues, with nine of the next 10 Substacks somewhere between super-liberal and, well, even more liberal than that. Matt Taibbi is the sole exception.

(Hide your eyes)

The politics shift has come with a second painful change: Substack is now increasingly filled with people who aren’t particularly interested in writing. I don’t mean bad writers, like Paul Krugman. I mean people who view the platform as a place for podcasting or video, delivered through an app.

The people who made the most of Substack 1.0, like Taibbi, Andrew Sullivan, even Heather Cox Richardson (a Massachusetts historian who was the first and arguably only organic liberal success story on Substack), built their audiences as writers.

So what’s happened?

Substack began with a very simple value proposition. It offered an easy-to-use newsletter creator and email engine along with an seamless link to Stripe. The combination was well worth the 10 percent fee Substack charged, especially for people like me, who needed a reliable (meaning non-censoring) host. Yes, Substack’s cut grew along with the audience. But most individual writers never grew so big that the 10 percent really mattered. Even those who did generally weren’t interested in trying to move a big audience.

Done with Substack subscriptions? Consider a one-time donation. Actually, don’t just consider it, do it!

Could Substack have stuck with a simple 10-percent-of-newsletters-business?

I don’t know. Other newsletter publishers charge less (one is trying to recruit me right now), although Substack still has a better brand than they do.

Either way, though, Substack wanted — and wants — to grow. It believes it can only survive as a media company by pushing podcasting and video offerings and encouraging readers and writers to use its app and its X-like “Notes” feature.

But the podcast and video business is both expensive and very competitive. You may have heard of a little company called YouTube (itself part of Alphabet, nee Google). On the right, Rumble is a $3 billion publicly traded company, while X has a massive audience for hosts like Tucker Carlson.

So, perhaps inevitably, Substack has gone left.

The problem, of course, is that leftist podcasting and video tends to be… what’s the word I’m looking for… hold on, it’ll come to me…

Boring.

Ahh, that’s it. Boring beyond belief. Aside from the momentary anti-Trump fervor of Donald Trump’s first term, Fox has destroyed MSNBC and CNN for a generation. Left-leaning comedians have largely ruined late night, ceding almost everyone under 50 (60?) to podcasters like Joe Rogan.

The original Substack had two unquestioned success stories: The Free Press and, yes, Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American. Both were newsletters that turned into something more — but still remain centered around writing.

At the same time, Substack became known for its free-speech philosophy, which was very appealing to people like me — and a draw for readers. Not everyone knew what Substack was, but those who did knew what the brand stood for: free speech. Anyone who didn’t like it was welcome to whine about Nazis and leave. And individual writers could do just fine with a couple of thousand paying subscribers.

What does the Substack brand stand for now?

Endless interchangeable lefty podcasters who want to be the next Joe Rogan but are burning cash fighting over Substack’s audience base, which is tiny compared to other video hosts?

(You know what brand hasn’t changed? This one! Subscribe to Unreported Truths and get, well, the truth. For pennies a day.)

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Meanwhile, the conservative and independent thinkers and writers who made Substack different than the New York Times or other legacy media outlets are harder and harder to find, and Substack does less and less to promote them.

Maybe Substack will be able to make the leap into something like a left-wing Rumble. The company discloses very little about its growth or finances. Its last update on paid subscribers in March 2025, when it said it had passed the five million paid subscriber count. It had been announcing each one-million-subscriber milestone before that (it passed four million in November 2024), but it has been quiet since then. Does that mean its growth has stalled south of six million paid users? I don’t know.

What I do know is that Substack’s fizz has faded. Three years ago, Elon Musk wanted to buy Substack and make it part of X. Today, I suspect he couldn’t care less.

And that’s a problem all the boring liberal newsletters in the world can’t solve.

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bogorad
3 days ago
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wtf does he care who else is on substack??
Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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